It’s Ladies Day at the Melbourne Cup Carnival on Thursday and 12 fillies contest the Group 1 Crown Oaks in race 8 on the card.
If you put any faith in statistics at all, you will probably not want to look any further than the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes for finding the winner here. Remarkably, 14 of the previous 20 winners have come via that race.
Unfortunately, that only narrows the field down to six but the first three of those are likely to be the relevant runners here. Thunder Lady came out on top ahead of Godolphin’s Abduction with Golconda running on in eye-catching style in fourth place. Tommy Berry rides Thunder Lady from barrier eight and he daughter of Mastercraftsman will surely have no problems lasting this trip.
Godolphin felt that Abduction saw too much daylight that day but she looks a very free-running sort and I am not entirely sure that this longer distance will suit her. She could not have a better rider than Kerrin McEvoy to nurse her home but I believe Thunder Lady will again come out on top. She is trained by John Sargent who won the race last year with Kirramosa.
At the available odds, I will also take an each-way bet on the fourth horse Golconda. She was a long way off the pace and had to race wide into the straight. Although she was never closer than at the finish, she did not lose any ground on the winner during the final sprint. At odds of around 25-1, she looks worth an interest.
Set Square was impressive in the Ethereal Stakes while Go Indy Go will have plenty of supporters after finishing third against the colts last time out. The bookmakers are having a hard time finding a clear favourite with Go Indy Go grouped with Robert Smerdon’s Lumosty and Crafty.
Lumosty won her maiden by nine lengths but could only manage eighth in the Guineas. She bounced back to form to win the Group 2 Fillies Classic by two and a half lengths last time. Crafty was game in defeat in the Edward Manifold Stakes and the Caulfield Classic. Both races were won by Smerdon’s Fontein Ruby who is also in the field but relatively friendless in the betting after fading last time.
Thunder Lady @7.70 Bet365
Golconda @26.0 Bet365
Each-way 1/4 odds, 1,2,3
