Tag: Waratahs

Super Rugby Round 5 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

No one could have accurately predicted the spanners thrown into the mix by the Lions and the Highlanders in last week’s Super Rugby action.  Round 5 shouldn’t feature as many potential banana skins, but it probably includes more games that could go either way.  Particularly, the Chiefs start to their South African tour against the table topping Stormers.

Our picks for Round 5 below:

Hurricanes v Blues

Hurricanes – $1.21

Blues – $4.50

John Kirwan is under all sorts of pressure and an away match against the New Zealand conference’s only unbeaten team is not what he needs.  Thus, the Blues could be heading back over the Bombay Hills winless and coachless after they lose to the Hurricanes on Friday night.  Coming off the bye won’t be a factor for the Canes, nor will throwing Nehe Milner-Shudder a first Super Rugby start.  Hurricanes too strong from 6-13, they’ll win by 13+.

Force v Rebels

Force – $1.62

Rebels – $2.30

The poor cousins of the Australian conference will battle it out in what shapes to be an incredibly even contest.  For once the Force are favourites (they have won just two of the eight encounters between the teams in Super Rugby history), probably because of the home advantage rather than compelling form.  Both sides have won one game thus far, both coming in the first week against more fancied opponents.  Since then though it’s been slim pickings.  The Rebels had a bye last week too, but in their last match were unlucky in a narrow loss to the Brumbies.  The Force seem to be getting worse, so we’re backing the Rebels by 1-12.

Crusaders v Lions

Crusaders – $1.09

Lions – $8.00

There’s is zero possibility of the Lions doing to the Crusaders what they did to the Blues last week.  The Crusaders will be far too strong at home, and I for one like their approach of using Dan Carter at 12.   The All Blacks will like the approach too.  Because of Aaron Cruden’s kicking woes (you can’t play him in a World Cup final at the moment), they need to see Slade at ten to see how he’s progressing, but also need Carter on the paddock because he might be the best option even with all the injuries.  The return of Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock also delivers a big boost for the home side.  Crusaders 13+.

Highlanders v Waratahs

Highlanders – $2.40

Waratahs – $1.59

We might be the only ones but we like the Highlanders in this one.  The New Zealand side have shown a resolute defence in the tournament thus far and that’s exactly what they need to contain the talented Waratahs backs.  Israel Folau is expected to spend some time in the centres, creating a mouth watering showdown against All Black Malakai Fekitoa.  Fekitoa’s defence has improved markedly since becoming an All Black and has added breakdown turnovers to his repertoire; the winner of that particular contest could determine the overall victor.  The Waratahs are unchanged and despite them having the better overall record, we’ll go Highlanders 1-12.

Reds v Brumbies

Reds – $3.60

Brumbies – $1.30

Unfortunately, this match is a foregone conclusion.  The Brumbies are the best team in the conference, and the Reds are a rabble of misfits and past performers.  They’re also badly affected by injuries with James O’Connor again ruled out, Lachie Turner sitting out due to a concussion and Quade Cooper still on the sidelines.  They were well off the pace against last week and don’t deserve much attention against the Brumbies.  Brumbies 13+.

Stormers v Chiefs

Stormers – $1.75

Chiefs – $2.10

This is the toughest game of the round to call.  The table topping Stormers against the third placed Chiefs is a dream come true for Rugby fans who are noticing their sport suddenly lose marketshare to cricket.  The fifth round rugby savour will match up two of the more dangerous midfielders in the world – Sonny Bill Williams and Damian de Allende.  The match up between Liam Messam and Duane Vermeulen is also worth the admission alone.  Both teams have opted for a significant number of changes to their teams, presumably managing the workload of a busy calendar year.  We’ll vote against the masses and pick the Chiefs 1-12.  We think they’ll be embarrassed by last week and bounce back strongly.

Cheetahs v Sharks

Cheetahs – $2.15

Sharks – $1.72

Two teams who are playing hot and cold rugby face off and make the final match of the round also difficult to predict.  The Cheetahs have two wins and the Sharks, surprisingly, have just one.  Bismarck du Plessis returns to lead the Sharks, and former England international Mouritz Botha also enters the fray.  Free State Stadium may give the Cheetahs an advantage if they can recover from the shock points ambush inflicted by Handre Pollard and the Bulls last week.  Cheetahs 1-12.

The Multi

A head to head multi on these selections pays $38.40

A margin mutli on these selections pays $282.64

Super Rugby Round 4 Review

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Super Rugby continues to throw up its share of surprises after a couple of absolute shockers in Round 4.  The jet-setting Chiefs suffered their first loss of the year to fellow New Zealand outfit, the Highlanders, and the Blues lost at home to the perennial under-achevers, the Lions in a match that heaps even more pressure on coach John Kirwan.

Not only was Round 4 difficult on punters, it was also a difficult watch for rugby fans.  The games were incredibly boring, and only the Bulls and Brumbies were worth watching.  Here’s our take on Super Rugby Round 4.

Chiefs (17) v Highanders (20)

An error prone performance subjected the Chiefs to their first loss of the 2015 campaign and with it costed them top spot on the Super Rugby ladder.  Friday night’s poor execution was in stark to their exemplary performance of a week ago against the Crusaders, but was somewhat understandable in the face of committed Highlander’s defence.

The sloppy loss is not worth panicking over, however it does reinforce Steve Hansen’s comments about rugby getting boring if teams continue to play a high defensive line and place too great an emphasis on killing opposition momentum rather than countering it with their own.  No heroes to point out for either side.

Chiefs: Tries – Penalty try 2, Pen – A.Cruden, Con – A.Cruden 2

Highlanders: Tries – P.Osborne, Pen – L.Sopoaga 3, M.Banks 2

Brumbies (27) v Force (15)

The Brumbies were the most efficient Australian conference side of the round.  They secured a four try bonus point win in comfortable circumstance against a trying Western Force side, who despite asking the Brumbies to make 234 tackles in the game, couldn’t find any real momentum.

The skill of the Brumbies lies in their ability to soak up vast amounts of defensive pressure, which came in spades on Friday night, but was suitably death with for the third week in a row.

Even Nick Cummins return to the score sheet wasn’t enough to spark the Force.  They did improve from a week ago against the Highlanders, but they need to get more inventive on attack to compete regularly.

Brumbies: Tries – R.Arnold, J.Tomane, B.Alexander, N.White, Pen – C.Lealiifano, Con – C.Lealiifano 2

W.Force: Tries – N.Cummins, S.Mafi, Pen – Z.Holmes, Con – Z.Holmes

Blues (10) v Lions (13)

The Blues are in crisis mode after their fourth straight loss.  They are now the only team without a win in 2015, and looking increasingly like welcoming a new coach at some stage during the year.  The Blues fell from 10-3 up to lose to one of the least successful franchises in the history of Super Rugby.

The home defeat was especially disappointing given the Blues actually dominated in every facet of the game.  Sure, they lack leadership – Kain, Cowan and Braid are asked to shoulder too much responsibility, but they have All Blacks in Piatau, Halai and Saili who need to start shepherding the backline and making more penetrative plays when offered the opportunity.

Well done to the Lions for sticking at it in Albany, exceptional resolve.

Blues: Tries – J.Kaino, Pen – I.West, Con – I.West

Lions: Tries – R.Combrinck, Pen – E.Jantjies 2, Con – E.Jantjies

Reds (5) v Waratahs (23)

Folau is inside the top five for defenders beaten, offloads, metres and carries.  The attacking weapon is one of the reasons the Waratahs have fought back so strongly from their shock first round defeat.  Him, and the rest of the backline that is.  The uber-talented backs including the likes of Foley, Beale, Ashley-Cooper and Betham were excellent against the Reds despite some moments of sloppiness.

Reds could be in for a long season.

Reds: Tries – M.Kotze

Waratahs: Tries – B.Foley, P.Betham, Pen – B.Foley 3, Con – B.Foley 2

Cheetahs (20) v Bulls (39)

The game of the round featured a plethora of tries and the first time we were able to bring out the drop goal on the match scoreboard below.  Handre Pollard got the entire set of point options (try, conversion, penalty, droppy) in a characteristically awesome individual display.  The Bulls now look super dangerous, and if I was going to place any Super Rugby bet this week, it would be on them to win the South African conference.

The Cheetahs have been very decent this year, and they were unfortunate to run into such an emphatic Bulls side, to end their unbeaten run.

Pollard could not have asked for a better platform from his forwards that put in an impressive shift and completely dominated their opponents.  The Cheetahs pack showed some signs of weakness that will need to be addressed before the meet the Sharks this week.

Cheetahs: Tries – R.Rhule, B.Prinsloo, Pen – J.Pietersen 2, Con – J.Pietersen 2

Bulls: Tries – H.Pollard, B.Basson, J.Serfontein, Pen – H.Pollard 5, Con – H.Pollard 3, Drop – H.Pollard

Stormers (29) v Sharks (13)

The Stormers remain unbeaten and at the peak of the Super Rugby summit after a win against pre-tournament favourites the Sharks.  The Stormers flawless start to the season is showing no signs of slowing, after an imperious display in this match.  The Sharks who we gave a real chance to, failed to get in to the contest, and are now languishing in 10th position on the ladder.

Stormers centre Damian de Allende was arguably the player of the round.

Stormers: Tries – J.Kotze, Penalty try, Pen – D.Catrakilis 4, K.Coleman, Con – D.Catrakilis, K.Coleman

Sharks: Tries – P.Lambie, Pen – P.Lambie 2, Con – P.Lambie

Super Rugby Round 4 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Kicking off in just under 3 hours, it’s time to preview the latest round of Super Rugby, and this week we’re confident we’ll go 7 from 7.  So without further ado, the Super Rugby Round 4 Preview:

Odds taken from Tom Waterhouse.

Chiefs v Highanders

Chiefs – $1.20

Highlanders – $4.70

The Chiefs were so dominant last week against the Crusaders its hard to see the Highlanders causing them any trouble.  The Chiefs have the best performing 10 and 12 combination in the competition, and despite the Highlanders sneaking a win against the Reds last week, the Cheifs winning margin will be similar to last week’s.  The Highlanders have been unable to get enough ball to Fekitoa or Waisake Naholo, and thus aren’t finding the points of previous campaigns.  Chiefs by 13+.

Brumbies v Force

Brumbies – $1.15

Force – $5.60

If the Chiefs are currently the best team in the competition, the Brumbies aren’t far behind.  The brilliantly coached and disciplined Brumbies side should prove to strong against a team they have always enjoyed an edge over.  The Brumbies are conceding the fewest penalties of any team (although they probably regret on of the penalties they did concede), and that’s turning into significant pressure for their opponents.  In positive news for the Force, the Honey Badger, Nick Cummins returns.  He’s destined to bring more entertainment – both on field and in front of a post match interviewer.  Brumbies by 1-12.

Blues v Lions

Blues – $1.16

Lions – $5.35

If the reports are true, the Blues are already tapping up replacements for John Kiran, in the strongest indication yet that JK won’t be around next year.  Whether they are true or not, the Blues need wins.  Only wins will prevent the axe from falling, and Round 4 is an excellent opportunity to get one.  The Blues are yet to win a game, and look decidedly average on attack, but they’ve been beaten soundly.  Therefore, we think (along with most of the bookies) they’ll record their first win.  The Lions will find the travel a little too demanding.  Blues by 13+.

Reds v Waratahs

Reds – $2.80

Waratahs – $1.44

The oldest rivalry in Australian sport has traditionally been edge by the Reds.  Of the 23 previous encounters, the Reds have 13 wins to their names against the Waratahs 9.  However, the most recent was a a comprehensive win to the eventual 2014 Super Rugby Champions, by 32-5.  Neither team has reached top form in 2015, so form’s not a reliable indicator as to which way this one will go.  All we know is we’re looking forward to the individual matches – Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley vs James O’Connor and Will Genia, and Liam Gill vs Michael Hooper.  Waratahs by 1-12.

Cheetahs v Bulls

Cheetahs – $2.00

Bulls – $1.82

The Bulls finally got going last week as they returned to their attacking best spearhead by impressive youngster Handre Pollard in a win against the Sharks.  The Cheetahs also had a win; a lucky one against the self destructing Blues franchise.   The Bulls have completely dominated the historical matchups between the sides and we expect that to continue this weekend.  The only possibly of the Cheetahs sneaking a win is through the running game of Willie le Roux or goal kicking of Joe Pietersen.  Bulls 1-12.

Stormers v Sharks

Stormers – $1.62

Sharks – $2.32

A hotly anticipated South African conference duel is especially interesting because the Stormers haven’t won four in a row since 2012.  That’s the year that they were minor premiers (to steal a term from the NRL), and if they manage it in Cape Town it will ensue all sorts of Super Rugby belief.  The Sharks who beat them in a semi-final in 2012, have made an inauspicious start to the 2015 campaign, and need to improve drastically to overturn their results.  Pat Lambie is the crucial figure in the game, the young five eighth has already knocked up 58 competition points and will need to be watched closely.  Only because we haven’t picked an underdog this week, we’ll go Sharks 1-12.

This Week’s Multi

A head to head multi on our picks pays $9.73

A margin multi pays $253.02

Super Rugby Round 3 Review

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Super Rugby table seems to be separating into three strong teams (Hurricanes, Stormers, Chiefs – maybe harsh on the Brumbies) and then everyone else.  The three unbeaten sides look comfortably better than most on show and are destined to spend a fair bit of time near the top of the table this year.

Read below for our review of Round 3.

Highlanders (20) v Reds (13)

Dunedin’s Forsyth Barr stadium (or “the Zoo” as its affectionately known) hosted a bumper crowd for Friday night’s Super Rugby Round 3 opener, and the stadium demographic (drunk students) were treated to an even encounter between the Reds and the Highlanders.  The Reds are still finding their feet this year; they’ve had injury concerns, off field distractions and look a little unfit if we’re honest, and again struggled to build on a good start, this time against the Otago men.  The visitors dominated the opening thirty minutes with Reds recruit James O’Connor and veteran Will Genia combining nicely, however, they fell behind when another new recruit, the Highlander’s Waisake Naholo crossed the line to effectively seal the points.

The Highlanders need to find the right balance between their world class backline and workmanlike forward pack.  The forwards just dragging the chain.  Still they’re on the board in 2015.

Highlanders: Tries – W.Naholo, Pen – M.Banks 4, H.Parker

Reds: Tries – J.Schatz, Pen – J.O.Connor 2, Con – J.O.Connor

Force (13) v Hurricanes (42)

The Hurricanes continued the unbeaten start to the Super Rugby season with a comfortable win over the Force in Perth.  Basing their game on strong defence, the Wellington side are now three from three without having played a match at home.  Chris Boyd is having no trouble getting the best out of his All Blacks – Cory Jane, Victor Vito and Beauden Barrett all going up a gear from last year.  The Hurricanes are out on their own at the top of the Super Rugby table, and we’re already looking forward to their New Zealand conference showdown with the Chiefs.

The Force’s opening win is now a distant memory as they disappointed in their first effort in front of home fans.  Not many positives in this one unfortunately.

Force : Tries – M.Scott, Pen – Z.Holmes, S.Ebersohn, Con – L.Burton

Hurricanes: Tries – C.Jane, M.Abbott,V.Vito, J.Savea, J.Marshall, Pen – B.Barrett 3, Con – B.Barrett 2, J.Marshall 2

Cheetahs (25) v Blues (24)

The Cheetahs are unexpectedly still unbeaten after disposing of the Blues in Bloemfontein.  Mind you, they shouldn’t be.  The Blues lost this one rather than the Cheetahs winning it.  The Blues should have sealed the match comfortably but some questionable decision making led to the one point loss that heaps even more pressure on John Kirwan.  As likeable as he is, JK just hasn’t been able to come up with a winning game plan at the Blues and his position is becoming increasingly untenable.

The Cheetahs look okay.  They’ll play better than this and still lose though when they meet sterner competition.

Cheetahs: Tries – C.Hendricks 2, S.Pretorius, Pen – J.Pietersen 2, Con – J.Pietersen 2

Blues: Tries – L.Braid, C. Faumuina, J.Kaino, Pen – I.West, Con – I.West 3

Chiefs (40) v Crusaders (16)

The Chiefs signalled their title aspirations with a demolition of the consistently decent Crusaders outfit at home on Saturday night.  The bonus point win, built around another fine performance from the most impressive 9, 10, 12 in the competition, is certain to worry the other sides due to make the trip to Waikato.  The Highlanders make the trip next, but are unlikely to fare any better.

The Crusaders are still struggling to shake the early season rust, and while they’ll have easier matches to make up the points, they are looking fractured and unenthused.  Tom Taylor struggled at fullback, Colin Slade didn’t run enough and Todd Blackadder needs to give his whole troop some advice on decision-making.

Chiefs: Tries – SB Williams, A.Pulu, C.Ngatai, T.Marshall, J.Lowe, Pen – A.Cruden 3, Con – A.Cruden 3

Crusaders: Tries – A.Ellis, Pen – C.Slade 3, Con – C.Slade

Rebels (15) v Brumbies (20)

The driving rain put paid to any chance of this one being an entertaining classic.  It also curtailed the Rebels chance of winning the game, as the Brumbies’ Wallabies-packed forward unit exercised complete control to stifle their opponents.  Led by the retuning Stephen Moore, the Brumbies choked the life out of the game with a possession based tip of the hat to percentage footy.

Nothing really to write home about in the entire eighty minutes, but enough to put the Brumbies in control of the Australian conference.

Rebels: Pen – M.Harris 5

Brumbies: Tries – T.Kuridrani, J.Butler, Pen – C.Lealiffano 2, Con – C.Lealiffano 2

Bulls (43) v Sharks (35)

The match of the round saw six tries and plenty of points as the Bulls finally recorded a win at home.  Facing the South African conference favourites, the Sharks, the Bulls scored four tries to two and survived the boot of Patrick Lambie to get their 2015 Super Rugby campaign back on course.

The battle featuring Adriaan Strauss and Pierre Spies against Ryan Kankowski was epic, with Kankowski celebrating his return from Japan with a try, as did Spies.

Neither the Sharks or Bulls are looking like contenders at this early stage of the competition.  Both have plenty to work on – and we suggest it begins with defence.  The Sharks have conceded the most points in Super Rugby, and the Bulls the second most.

Bulls: Tries – F.Hougaard, D.Stegmann, P.Spies, J.Serfontein , Pen – H.Pollard 3, T. Schoeman, Con – H.Pollard 3, T.Schoeman

Sharks: Tries – R.Kankowski, C.Reinach, Pen – P.Lambie 7, Con – P.Lambie 2

Lions (19) v Stormers (22)

The Stormers have started the best out of any of the South African teams and just as everyone was singing their praises they almost suffered a shock loss to the Lions.  It could have been a tie too, with the Lions turning down a shot at goal to tie things up after being awarded a penalty late on; instead seeking an unlikely win.

The enterprise wasn’t rewarded, much to the dismay of the home stand, but they put up a brave fight that was worth more than their place at the bottom of the Super Rugby table.  They are a lot more competitive than in seasons gone by and will not be easy beats at home.

The Stormers have their work cut out for them next week when they meet the high flying Stormers in Cape Town.  They must improve.

Lions: Tries – W. Tecklenburg, Pen – E.Jantjies 4, Con – E.Jantjies

Stormers: Tries – S.Kolisi, Pen – D.Catrakilis 5, Con – K.Coleman

Super Rugby Round 1 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Super Rugby returns this weekend with most of the teams in action.  Check out preview of all the matches below, with odds from Tom Waterhouse.

Crusaders v Rebels, Christchurch, Friday 5.35pm

Crusaders – $1.15

Rebels – $5.75

This is a tough one to predict first up.  The Rebels have never won outside of Australia, but they do have a relatively strong record against the Crusaders, who for all of their success in Super Rugby competitions are slow starters.  Nonetheless, we’re going with a Crusaders win here, mainly because of the excitement in Christchurch at the moment with the opening of the Cricket World Cup bringing loads of positivity and a big crowd.

Brumbies v Reds, Canberra, Friday 7.40pm

Brumbies – $1.33

Reds – $3.40

None of the opposition teams in Week 1 are favourites with the bookmakers.  This is no exception.  The Reds are without Quade Cooper, James O’Connor and former All Black Adam Thomson, and instead will rely on Karmichael Hunt to guide them around the paddock.  That’s probably too much to ask in your first rugby game of any significance.  Therefore, we’re going with the Brumbies by a narrow margin.  Keep an eye out for David Pocock who makes a return after a long injury lay off.

Lions v Hurricanes, Johhanesburg, Saturday 4.10am

Lions – $2.10

Hurricanes – $1.75

The Hurricanes leak more points than the District 5 did before Charlie Conway joined.  Expect no different when they take on the Lions in Johannesburg early Saturday morning.  But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll lose.  If the star-studded backbone can make up for the weak forward pack the amount of points they concede might not matter.  In TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett and Cory Jane the Hurricanes have enough class to get home in this one.

Blues v Chiefs, Auckland, Saturday 5.35pm

Blues – $2.00

Chiefs – $1.80

Surprisingly, the Blues only lost one home game last year, to the Chiefs mind you, however, that was with a full complement of All Black stars who are sitting this one out.  The Blues are less affected by dubious rest policy, but we’re still thinking the Chiefs might get up and take this match out.  They have belief, they have the titles under their belt, and they have Sonny Bill Williams.

Sharks v Cheetahs, Durban, Sunday 2.10am

Sharks – $1.20

Cheetahs – $4.50

The Sharks will win easily.  They are comfortably the frontrunners of the South African Conference, and even early season rust won’t stop them from overrunning the notoriously weak Bloemfontein outfit. Unfortunately, we wouldn’t recommend considering the Cheetahs on too many occasions this year in your weekly tips or office sweepstake.

Bulls v Stormers, Pretoria, Sunday 4.10am

Bulls – $1.35

Stormers – $3.25

This might just be the closest of the opening round games.  The Bulls boast seven Springboks in their forward pack and the IRB Junior Player of the year in Handre Pollard so it’s a brave man who bets against them at Loftus.  We’ll back the Bulls by 7, only to be consistent with our majority home team picks.

Waratahs v Force, Sydney, Sunday 4.05pm

Waratahs – $1.16

Force – $5.35

The Super Rugby defending champions are heavily backed favourites for week 1.  The Force look weak on paper this year, and although we back them to win some games in Perth, the Tahs will be too comfortable at home.  Expect Izzy Folau to carve up the dry afternoon turf and set the early pace for try-scorers too.