Coral Welsh National Preview

My two ante-post wagers on the Welsh National are looking good. Merry King (advised at 14-1) and Well Refreshed (advised at 12-1) are both now in single figures and have sneaked in with a feather weight. Tidal Bay’s presence has compressed the weights leaving almost half of the field out of the handicap

Paul Nicholls, fresh from his King George triumph with Silviniaco Conti, has decided to let Tidal Bay take his chance at Chepstow under the welter burden of 11st 12lb. The last horse to successfully carry that weight was Carvill’s Hill back in 1991.

Tidal Bay won the Lexus Chase a year ago but niggling injuries prevented him from running at Cheltenham or Aintree. He won on his return to action over hurdles at Wetherby and was subsequently well beaten in the Betfair Chase.

The closest to him in the handicap is Teaforthree, runner-up in this race 12 months ago and third in the Grand National. He is set to receive just over a stone from the top weight including the 5lb claim of jockey Patrick Corbett.

Trainer Rebecca Curtis has not been able to get a prep run into him this year but has him as fit as he can be first time out and is hoping for a good run. Two horses that have major claims on form are Well Refreshed and Merry King.

Both horses have been laid out for this race and have sneaked in with just a little over 10 stone. Well Refreshed loves the mud as he illustrated when winning the Haydock National Trial last season. He showed his well-being with a fine third at Sandown recently despite a couple of jumping errors.

Merry King was fifth in the Hennessy Gold Cup but is another that seems certain to be suited by this stamina test. He represents Trainer Jonjo O’Neill who has won this race with Mini Sensation and Synchronised.

Jim Dreaper won the race with Notre Pere in 2008 and relies on six-year-old Goonyella this year. Travel plans had to be changed due to the winter storms and did not arrive until midnight on Boxing Day. That hardly seems like the ideal build-up to such an exhausting test for a young horse.

Hennessy fourth Highland Lodge is also among the leading fancies in a 20-strong line-up for the race due off at 2.35 and screened live on Channel 4.

Well Refreshed 12-1

Merry King 14-1

Welsh National Ante-Post Update

There are two things that keep racing fans going during the Christmas break. One is the King George and the other is the Welsh National.

I’ve always been a great fan of the Chepstow race and have backed a few winners over the years. It’s a very demanding race, usually run in bottomless ground and suits dour stayers. A couple of weeks ago I suggested Merry King at 14-1 for the race after he had run a fair fifth in the Hennessy Gold Cup.

Jonjo O’Neill keeps his cards close to his chest but he still seems to be heading for Wales and the Hennessy form was given a minor boost when Theatre Guide ran well at Cheltenham. He was second to last year’s winner Monbeg Dude but looked to be going best for most of the race and possibly ran too freely for his own good.

I am now going to back up my investment by taking the 12-1 about Well Refreshed, a confirmed starter for Gary Moore. This horse has a habit of clouting one or two fences but Chepstow is about as forgiving as you can get and he loves the mud.

Last season he improved out of all recognition, winning the Sussex National in a bog at Plumpton by 28 lengths and dishing out another thrashing to his rivals at Haydock. That was in the Grand National Trial where he just about up-rooted the last but was strong enough to stay on his feet.

The Moore stable did us a favour with Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek recently and they must have a great chance of adding another big prize here. Take the 12-1 on offer with Bet365 as I’m sure he will start at less than half of those odds.

The market still contains several horses with multiple entries and anyone who has backed Sydney Paget, Silver By Nature or Nuts N Bolts will be biting their finger nails at the moment. Their respective trainers have hinted at alternative engagements over Christmas and the betting could be in for a shake-up.

I am not convinced by Goonyella’s position at the head of the market whilst Tidal Bay and Teaforthree are likely to be anchored by their big weights. Highland Lodge is a threat on his fine run in the Hennessy but I still fancy Merry King to get the better of him over this longer trip.

Well Refreshed 12-1 Bet365

*Merry King 14-1 Coral