FA Cup Fifth Round Preview

Betcirca football followers were 20 points up on Wednesday night’s Premiership games after we correctly forecast the score for the matches at Old Trafford and St Mary’s. Profits could easily have been doubled had Branislav Ivanovic broken the deadlock at Stamford Bridge. Unfortunately he had one disallowed, blazed another over the bar and had a decent shot saved by Howard in the Everton goal.

The Premiership gives way to the FA Cup this weekend and the shock exit of Chelsea and Man City in the last round has left us with a rather bland set of fixtures. No doubt supporters of the sixteen remaining clubs would beg to differ so we’ll see if we can find some value bets for die-hard FA Cup enthusiasts.

The tie of the round is probably Crystal Palace versus Liverpool, Saturday’s late kick-off. The Reds survived by the skin of their teeth in the previous round against Bolton and struck late again in midweek against Spurs. That 3-2 victory has re-ignited their hopes of finishing in the top four so there must be danger of some squad rotation from Brendan Rodgers on Saturday.

If any Premiership team is going to be fully committed to the FA Cup you would expect them to be those in mid-table, not worried by relegation but too far down to be in contention for Europe. Crystal Palace fit the bill quite nicely and it may be worth taking Alan Pardew’s men to cause an upset.

The early kick-off sees West Brom host West Ham and I favour the home side to capitalise on the fact that the Hammers have endured two very tough matches in the past week. They were robbed of a victory in injury-time by Man United on Sunday but clung on with ten men against Southampton on Wednesday. They lost their goalkeeper to a red card and Andy Carroll picked up another knock so it could be a patched-up West Ham team that takes the field.

I don’t see Arsenal slipping up against Middlesbrough on Sunday and they can be backed to win comfortably and it should be a similar story for Man United at Preston on Monday. Van Gaal’s team selection is anybody’s guess so the goalscorer markets may be best avoided. It is difficult to predict the outcome of the game between managerless Aston Villa and rudderless Leicester while Stoke could struggle at Blackburn after their 4-1 home defeat by Man City.

Crystal Palace to beat Liverpool by one goal @9-2 Paddy Power

West Brom to beat West Ham @7-5 Bet365

Saido Berahino to score at any time @2-1 Betfair

Arsenal (-1.0 handicap) to beat Middlesbrough @6-5 Bet365

Man United (-1.0 handicap) to beat Preston @5-4 Bet365

Chelsea to maintain Premiership advantage

Chelsea and Manchester City each face tricky opposition on Wednesday night in the Premier League. The London club moved seven points clear of the champions on Saturday courtesy of Branislav Ivanovic’s fine drive against Aston Villa. They now face Everton at Stamford Bridge as leading scorer Diego Costa sits out the final match of his suspension for the stamping incident against Liverpool last month.

Everton have not won at the Bridge in their last twenty visits and were beaten 6-3 in an extraordinary game at Goodison Park earlier in the season. Roberto Martinez’s team were hovering dangerously close to the drop zone before their victory over Crystal Palace recently. A dour 0-0 draw with Liverpool suggests that they have steadied the ship and should provide a tough test for Jose Mourinho’s side. If the Blues are to go on to be crowned champions, these are just the sort of games that they need to grind out a result. Ivanovic scored a vital goal against Liverpool prior to his strike against Villa and looks over-priced in the goals markets.

Manchester City have been poor recently and have only picked up three points in their last four league matches. Sergio Aguero is yet to hit the target since returning from his latest injury while you have to go back to September to find Edin Dzeko’s last goal. They travel to Stoke who are in great form at present. Mark Hughes had the satisfaction of inflicting a rare home defeat on Manuel Pellegrini’s side earlier in the season and his side can cause further problems on Wednesday.

How ironic to hear Sam Allardyce criticising Manchester United for their long-ball tactics at the weekend. This is Big Sam who was positively purring with delight after parking a claret and blue bus in front of goal against Chelsea last season and escaping with a point. The Hammers are a different side altogether this season and now travel to St Mary’s hoping to dent Southampton’s hopes of a top four spot. Both sides have been struggling in front of goal recently and this match could produce a stalemate.

United salvaged a point at West Ham and should have little trouble at home to seventeenth placed Burnley. Wayne Rooney started the season in great form but has not managed a shot on target in nearly seven hours of football this year. Fortunately for United, they have plenty of other attacking options with the unlikely figure of Fellaini providing them with an old-fashioned target man when the chips are down.

The other match that takes the eye on Wednesday is Crystal Palace at home to Newcastle. Alan Pardew will relish the prospect of moving within two points of his former club with a win here. The two previous fixtures between these teams produced eleven goals so it may worth taking a punt on a 3-2 win for the Eagles.

Chelsea to beat Everton by one goal @27-10 BetVictor

Branislav Ivanovic to score first @22-1 BetVictor

Branislav Ivanovic to score at any time @8-1 Betfred

Stoke v Man City DRAW @14-5 Betfair

Southampton 0 West Ham 0 @10-1 William Hill

Man United 3 Burnley 1 @12-1 Bet365

Crystal Palace 3 Newcastle 2 @40-1 Bet365

Hammers can end Everton FA Cup hopes

There are some interesting FA Cup third round replays taking place this week, none more so than the clash between West Ham and Everton at Upton Park on Tuesday night.

The Hammers were robbed off a place in the fourth round by an injury-time equaliser from Romelu Lukaku at Goodison Park.  Under-fire Everton coach Roberto Martinez must have been a relieved man to see that go in and the Toffees picked up enough encouragement to hold champions Man City on Saturday.

I have been most impressed by West Ham this season and they could be doing even better with a bit more luck in recent matches. They led Swansea thanks to a superb goal from Andy Carroll at the weekend but a Mark Noble own-goal left them sharing the points. They also drew with West Brom and should have got at least a point from a pulsating London derby against Arsenal.

West Ham boss Sam Allardyce could pick his strongest possible side at Upton Park on Tuesday night and that will really put the pressure on a weakened Everton line-up. Only Diafra Sakho and Cheikhou Kouyate are missing from Allardyce’s regular squad and the return to form of Carroll gives them an obvious attacking threat. Stewart Downing continues to earn rave reviews in midfield and the Hammers are deservedly favourites to go through.

Martinez endured a miserable festive season with four straight defeats against Southampton, Stoke, Newcastle and Hull. The 1-1 draw against West Ham and a league point against the City have temporarily stopped the rot but he continues to struggle with an injury-hit squad. Tim Howard, Sylvain Distin and Leon Osman are among those still absent as Everton look for a first win since mid-December.  Lukaku has been working tirelessly in recent matches and he will be the most likely goal threat for the visitors.

The pick of the remaining replays on Tuesday is the clash between Wolves and Fulham at Molineux. The home team will be without top scorer Bakary Sako but should still have too much power for a team ten places below them in the Championship. The winners are rewarded with a trip to The Stadium of Light to face Premiership Sunderland in the fourth round. The winner of the West Ham/Everton game visit either Doncaster or Bristol City.

West Ham to beat Everton @7-5 William Hill

Wolves to beat Fulham @19-20 Coral

FA Cup 3rd Round Preview

The 3rd Round of the FA Cup has provided plenty of shocks down the years as the Premier League clubs entered the competition. Most of the big guns do not play until Sunday following a dramatic week of Premiership action.

West Brom will be desperate to avoid any embarrassment with the visit of Gateshead while the all-Premiership clash between Leicester and Newcastle is the pick of Saturday’s ties. Both teams were involved in entertaining draws on New Year’s Day, Leicester pulling back a two-goal deficit at Anfield and the Magpies being pegged back to a 3-3 draw by Burnley. Newcastle look decidedly shaky at the moment but will Leicester be keen to get involved in a Cup run with the threat of relegation hanging over them? My guess is no so I’m siding with Newcastle.

Swansea are the only other Premier League team in action on Saturday and they face a tricky encounter at Tranmere. The Swans received a late boost with the news that Wayne Routledge’s red card against QPR has been rescinded and he is free to play on Saturday. Garry Monk is expected to make wholesale changes but they can still prove too strong for a Tranmere side that languishes third from bottom of League Two.

Neil Lennon has brought about some dramatic improvement at Bolton since he took over. They have only dropped two t home in their last six matches and can see off an out-of-sorts Wigan at the Macron Stadium.

Chelsea fans will still be reeling from that 5-3 defeat at Tottenham when the Blues take on Watford at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea’s second XI are good enough to compete with most Premiership sides so any number of changes won’t affect the result here. Jose Mourinho will demand a response from their New Year’s Day nightmare and it may be worth chancing a big win with the likes of Remy and Schurrle keen to impress.

Man City have clawed their way back level with the Blues in the Premiership and can see off Sheffield Wednesday despite their continuing lack of a front-line striker. Jovetic can make the most of his opportunity in the absence of Aguero and Dzeko.

Man United’s all-stars travel to lowly Yeovil and can also score a decisive victory but Southampton and Arsenal look more vulnerable. The Saints have resurrected their league form but don’t have the strength in depth to afford too many changes against Ipswich while the Gunners face last year’s Cup finalists Hull. It may be worth taking a chance on the draw in both games.

The action continues on Monday with Burnley hosting Tottenham and Wimbledon welcoming Liverpool. On Tuesday Everton play West Ham in another all-Premiership clash. Everton are really struggling lately while West Ham have been playing well without getting the results. A combination of poor refereeing and poor finishing cost them points against Arsenal and they should have beaten West Brom on New Year’s Day.

Bolton to beat Wigan @6-4 Bet365

Newcastle to beat Leicester @2-1 Coral

Swansea (-2.0 handicap) to beat Tranmere @11-4 Skybet

Man City (-2.0 handicap) to beat Sheffield Wednesday @6-5 Bet365

Stevan Jovetic to score and Man City win @11-10 Bwin

Southampton v Ipswich DRAW @15-4 BetVictor

Man United (-2.0 handicap) to beat Yeovil @13-8 Skybet

Chelsea (-2.0 handicap) to beat Watford @6-5 Bet365

Andre Schurrle to score and Chelsea win @7-5 Bwin

Arsenal v Hull DRAW @9-2 Bet365

West Ham to beat Everton @3-1 Totesport

Hazard to keep Chelsea on course for title

Sunday’s Premiership football did not exactly go to plan for punters with Chelsea, Man City and Man United all held. The Blues can count themselves unlucky after the Cesc Fabregas penalty incident but they received a late Christmas present from the Etihad when Burnley completed an unlikely comeback to draw 2-2 with the champions.

Once again, City appear to have much the easier task on New Year’s Day with a home game against Sunderland. The injuries to Aguero and Dzeko have left Manuel Pellegrini’s side looking extremely light up front but the fixture list has contrived to put them up against five of the bottom seven teams in recent matches. Sunderland have improved considerably from their nightmare 8-0 defeat at Southampton and will try to emulate Burnley but it looks like another three points for City. David Silva has been outstanding in recent matches and can again get on the scoresheet.

Chelsea are in the late kick-off at White Hart Lane where they face a Tottenham side who are unbeaten in seven matches since losing 3-0 at Stamford Bridge. Spurs had chances to take a shock lead that night but were outclassed once Chelsea engaged top gear. The home side have an appalling record against Chelsea over the years but look a tougher side to beat this season. Eden Hazard is in top form and he could be worth a bet in the goalscorer markets.

It’s been a hectic week in the hiring and firing stakes with Newcastle, Crystal Palace and West Brom all involved. Alan Pardew’s imminent departure from the Magpies probably suits both he and the club after a turbulent couple of seasons. He did well to come through an early-season crisis and leaves the club in the top ten while Newcastle will receive compensation for ending his contract early. I think Newcastle may struggle against Burnley on Thursday as a result and you have to admire the Clarets for battling away at Man City.

Liverpool hit form with a 4-1 win over Swansea on Monday night and, like Man City, are enjoying a very soft run of fixtures. They should be too strong for Leicester while Man United can overcome Stoke at the Britannia Stadium. Louis van Gaal and Wayne Rooney have both been having a moan about the fixture list this week but United are still in fine form and can take all three points.

West Ham impressed me against Arsenal and were desperately unlucky to lose 2-1. They should have gone ahead when Alex Song’s fired home from 25 yards only to have the goal ruled out for a controversial offside decision. They battled back well from 2-0 and had late chances to snatch a point.

They have yet to register a point over Christmas but can put matters right when they face manager-less West Brom. Arsenal face a tricky visit to Southampton who managed to hang on for a point against Chelsea. The key player here could be Alexis Sanchez who has scored in both previous games against the Saints.

Burnley to beat Newcastle @17-4 Bet365

Spurs 1 Chelsea 2 @8-1 Bet365

Eden Hazard to score first @13-2 Bet365

Man City (-1.0 handicap) to beat Sunderland @8-13 Bet365

David Silva to score first @11-2 Bet365

Man United to beat Stoke @21-10 BetVictor

Liverpool (-1.0 handicap) to beat Leicester @6-5 Spreadex

West Ham (-1.0 Handicap) to beat West Brom @9-4 Paddy Power

Alexis Sanchez to score first @11-2 Bet365

Barkley can be Boxing Day star for Everton

The holiday period can sometimes prove pivotal in the title race and Chelsea go into Christmas three points clear of champions Manchester City.

Goals by John Terry and Cesc Fabregas were enough to claim all three points against Stoke at the Britannia Stadium on Monday and the Blues now face London rivals West Ham. The game gets under way at 12.45 and it will be interesting to see whether Sam Allardyce employs the same defensive policy which yielded a 0-0 draw last season.

Jose Mourinho labelled it “19th century football” but that did not concern Allardyce. His side are performing with a lot more credit this season and a top ten finish looks distinctly possible. A feisty encounter seems assured but Chelsea can match any team physically and can grab another victory.

Man City are on their travels at West Brom and they should keep up the pressure on Mourinho’s side with the minimum of fuss. They have won all but one of their last nine meetings with the Baggies and can be backed with confidence on the handicap.

Arsenal did not impress everyone with their 2-2 draw at Anfield but they should have too much fire power for QPR. Harry Redknapp’s side are still seeking their first away point of the season and this does not look like providing it. Olivier Giroud is in unstoppable form at present and he can fire the Gunners to victory.

Liverpool deserved their point against Arsenal, even if they required a goal deep into injury-time. They were down to ten men at the time so Brendan Rodgers will not doubt their commitment. They visit struggling Burnley who have failed to score in five of their last six games. The home side will see this as an opportunity to cause an upset but Liverpool’s superior quality can see them home.

Stoke were very poor against Chelsea on Monday night, other than a few fleeting moments in the second half. They are unlikely to get any change out of a visit to Goodison Park who will be looking to Ross Barkley to continue his return to full fitness. He will give their attack a new dimension which has been lacking in the early part of the season.

Manchester United’s progress was temporarily stalled by Aston Villa at the weekend, a costly result for those attempting accumulator bets on the top teams. They host a Newcastle side that has failed to progress from their shock 2-1 win over Chelsea. Van Persie has a fine scoring record against the Magpies and can again feature in an entertaining fixture.

Tips

Chelsea to beat West Ham by one goal @14-5 Ladbrokes

Liverpool to beat Burnley @17-20 Coral

Ross Barkley to score and Everton beat Stoke @7-2 Bet365

Van Persie to score and Man United beat Newcastle @7-5 Bwin

Olivier Giroud to score and Arsenal beat QPR @11-10 Bwin

Man City (-1.0 handicap) to beat West Brom @13-8 Spreadex