Tag: William Haggas

Racing Preview Wednesday 20th November

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There is a fascinating clash between two very promising novice hurdlers on an otherwise moderate card at Warwick on Wednesday. Garde La Victoire and Gone Too Far are both on a hat-trick and have been impressive in their most recent outings.

Garde La Victoire was in front from the fifth flight at Aintree and held off subsequent Plumpton scorer Regal Encore by two and a quarter lengths. The runner-up was given a lot to do that day but Garde La Victoire kept pulling out extra on the run-in and is highly regarded by the Hobbs stable. He can keep the JP McManus colours at bay again here.

The all-weather flat racing continues in the background and I’m putting up Elysian Prince as tomorrow’s nap selection. Paul Cole’s juvenile was having only his second start when bolting up over course and distance in September.

That marked a considerable improvement on his debut when only ninth of twelve at Goodwood and he looks capable of defying top weight in the six-runner nursery at 1.00. I looked at Blessington in the 2.30 but his last run has left just too many question marks for my liking. Having finished second at Ascot on his belated seasonal debut, he flopped badly in heavy ground at Newbury in October. In all likelihood it was simply a case of his not being able to handle the surface but it is difficult to support a horse beaten 78 lengths on his most recent outing!

Graphic has done us proud with two victories and a place in the Cambridgeshire and I see no reason to desert this improving sort at Kempton tomorrow. He’s a course and distance winner and looked better than ever when sluicing through the mud to beat Breton Rock at Nottingham last time out.

His last victory came off a rating of 102 but the handicapper has now raised him to 110. That just about makes him the best horse in the field for this listed race ahead of Tullius (109), Sirius Prospect (105) and Bertiewhittle (102). Jamie Spencer takes the ride on Graphic tomorrow and he can be yet another for the prolific William Haggas.

Elysian Prince 1.00 Lingfield 6-4 Bet365

Garde La Victoire 2.50 Warwick

Graphic 6.30 Kempton 5-2 Bet365

Kempton Thursday Preview

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The flat turf season may be over until March but there are still some interesting betting opportunities on the all-weather. This surface is no longer reserved exclusively for the low grade horses and the top trainers are happy to run their late developing horses on it through the winter.

A case in point could be Jeremy Noseda’s three-year-old filly Havelovewilltravel who runs under a 6lbs penalty in the 5.50 on Thursday. The daughter of Holy Roman Emperor did not appear until the end of September when just getting the better of Checkpoint over a mile under Ryan Moore at this venue. She must have been showing something at home because she was sent off the 5-2 favourite and was confidently ridden, swooping late from off the pace to win by a head.

The runner-up won his next race by seven lengths, admittedly only a claimer, whilst the third also won next time out and the fourth was just beaten here last month. The handicapper took a chance by putting Havelovewilltravel on a mark of 65 for her next race, again over a mile at Kempton. She was well supported into 2-1 favourite but things did not go to plan under William Buick. She was slowly away and slightly hampered early on and could not get to Diplomatic despite coming home strongly.

Diplomatic came out and won again here and was unlucky not to complete a hat-trick when second to Sugarformyhoney on Monday. Havelovewilltravel came back here to win off the same mark of 65 last week and was most impressive. Once again she was dropped to the rear by Buick but she picked the field up easily between the three furlong and two furlong marker before stretching clear to win by six lengths. I am sure that the handicapper would like to have reassessed her a lot higher than her 6lbs penalty and it will be disappointing if she cannot win off this mark.

Anything trained by William Haggas has to be considered these days and Araqella could give the favourite most to do. She also looks well treated on her earlier form but disappointed at Wolverhampton last time out. The consistent Lady Sylvia and Wakeup Little Suzy will be thereabouts but I’m confident that Buick can deliver Havelovewilltravel late on to take the spoils.

Havelovewilltravel 6-4 Bet365

November Handicap Preview

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John Gosden has simplified matters regarding the November Handicap by announcing the sale of the prolific winner Thomas Hobson to go jumping. He will now join the all-powerful Mullins stable and you wouldn’t bet against him making the grade in that sphere. That reduces Gosden’s entry to the top two in the handicap on Saturday, Aiken and Lahaag.

Aiken has not shown his true form this season whilst Lahaag bounced back with a win at York last time out. That was his first venture over a mile and a half and he responded to a patient ride from Paul Hanagan to swoop late. It is true that he has failed to trouble the judge twice at Doncaster but I wouldn’t read too much into that and he must have a decent chance.

I have been singing the praises of William Haggas all season for his excellent record in the big handicaps and he runs Conduct here. This one has the right profile for a race like this having started life with Sir Michael Stoute and being very lightly raced. He has had just two outings for Haggas, possibly needing the first one after a year off the track and then running third here over a mile and a quarter. Seb Sanders is booked and this likeable grey could well start favourite.

Of course there are plenty of possibilities for this end-of-season lottery but I can’t help but think Communicator is overpriced at 20-1. He was second here last year for Andrew Balding and is now running off a 3lbs lower mark.  It is true that he has not been at his best but he could just have been saved for this and he is too good to ignore at the available price.

The Queen’s Border Legend is another one with scope for improvement and came from well off the pace to win at Nottingham. I felt the leaders went off much too fast that day so he may have been slightly flattered by that victory and he also has to prove that he stays.

I’ll take the 20-1 Communicator and 7-1 about Conduct and hope that neither is drawn out in the car park!

Communicator 20-1 Bet365, Coral

Conduct 7-1 Skybet, William Hill

 

Goodwood 25th September Preview

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Two out of two yesterday with Alex Vino (9-4) and Squire Osbaldeston (tipped at 5-2) keeping the profits rolling in. There are two stand-out bets on Goodwood’s card on Wednesday. On form, both should win comfortably but there are factors that could hinder the chances of either.

The first is Grandeur in the Foundation Stakes at 3.40. Jeremy Noseda’s four-year-old won the Hollywood Turf Cup last season and was again on his travels in August when attempting to land the Arlington Million. His chances were dealt a blow when he was given a poor draw and he subsequently suffered an injury during the race.

It was to his credit that he was able to run on as well as he did to finish a little over four lengths back in fourth behind the promoted Real Solution. On his previous start he had closed to within three-quarters of a length of the odds-on Mukhadram at York and he will be hard to beat on that form. The concern has to be whether he can bounce back from his exertions. He was accompanied to Arlington by Yeager and that horse ran as if his legs were tied together at Newmarket on Saturday.

Opposition includes Goodwood Cup winner Brown Panther, racing over a trip well short of his best in order to finalise plans for a possible Melbourne Cup tilt. Sugar Boy is a more potent threat over this trip having beaten Eye Of The Storm, Galileo Rock and Libertarian in the Sandown Classic Trial in April. He is on the comeback trail after running a dismal race in the Irish Derby.

The second wager is the rapidly improving Battalion*, trained by William Haggas. The three-year-old has been a revelation since getting some give in the ground and handed out a thrashing to hat-trick seeking Thomas Hobson at Yarmouth last week. He made the running under Silvestre de Sousa and the jockey could scarcely believe his eyes when glancing over at his toiling rivals. The race was over long before the final furlong and he was eased to a five-length victory.

He is running again quickly because he incurs only a 6lbs penalty whereas the handicapper will undoubtedly clobber him with at least twice that. He still has 9st 13lb to carry but the main worry is whether the ground will be soft enough for him. It is officially good to soft, soft in places, but drying out rapidly on the Sussex Downs. Providing there is enough juice left in the ground, he should provide Ryan Moore with another winner.

Grandeur 3.40 5-2 Paddy Power

Battalion 4.15 6-4 Coral (*non-runner)

 

Chester and Sandown Preview 31st August

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Chester racecourse has fond memories for me having been my local track many moons ago! Saturday’s card has attracted some decent animals with the feature race being the Chester Stakes at 3.30.

I fancied Sun Central for the Ebor until he was left on top of the handicap and then the going and draw turned against him. Not surprisingly William Haggas pulled him out (oh, the joys of ante-post betting!). He has been diverted here where the going is currently reported to be just on the soft side of good. That has to be a worry with 9st 13lb to carry.

Montaser seems to have lost his way this season and is another with a marked preference for fast ground whilst Handsome Man has always been a rule unto himself. Star Lahib is a typical Mark Johnston beast that runs week-in, week-out and continues to surprise. I thought she was a fortunate winner of a slowly run Old Newton Cup but she has since bolted up in the Shergar Cup and run well in the Galtres Stakes at York.

John Gosden’s Tempest Fugit is returning after a lengthy absence and almost all of his horses need a race to put them straight. Savanna La Mar put up a career-best effort when fourth at Newbury last time but looked very one-paced whilst Alta Lilea suffers from a similar lack of toe. By process of elimination that leaves the hugely disappointing Guarantee who ran his best race for some time in the Ebor. He was hampered in his run but stayed on perfectly well to finish a closing seventh and he could be value at 9-1.

Es Que Love turns out yet again in the seven-furlong handicap and is almost certain to be up at the head of affairs early on from stall two. I can see him running a big race here but Alejandro could just have his measure in receipt of a stone. His Goodwood run behind Magic City looks pretty useful after that won came out of the clouds to follow up last weekend.

I’ve got a lot of time for Newbury and Newmarket two-year-old races as horses that run well three are almost always up to winning their maiden elsewhere. Charlie Hills runs My Painter here on Saturday after a fine debut at HQ when just run out of it in the closing stages by a useful couple of fillies in Night Song and Casual Smile.

Guarantee 9-1 Ladbrokes

Alejandro 8-1 Boylesports

My Painter Evens Betfair

York Ebor Meeting Day 2 Preview

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Broxbourne got us out of trouble on the opening day with a 6-1 winner. The Ladies take centre stage at York on Thursday with the Yorkshire Oaks and the Lowther Stakes the feature races. The Yorkshire Oaks provides a bit of a conundrum with The Fugue attempting a mile and a half for the fourth time having been beaten on all three previous attempts.

To be fair, she suffered interference in the Oaks and was only beaten a neck in this race a year ago but the general consensus is still that she is better at a mile and a quarter. I was impressed with Wild Coco at Goodwood but connections have always said that she needs a bit of cut and it seemed pretty quick on the Knavesmire on Wednesday. The one to be on could be Venus de Milo who was second in the Irish Oaks to the wayward French filly Chicquita before recording an easy victory at the Curragh.

The two-year-olds have just about got me stumped this season. Nothing stands out in the Lowther Stakes and J Wonder is put up as favourite despite only winning a nursery. However, the way the third home came out and won a decent race at Newmarket at the weekend suggests the form may be worth following.

William Haggas has had a tremendous season, particularly in the big handicaps. He has several horses with chances tomorrow including Queensberry Rules in the mile handicap at 3.05. This horse stayed on well in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot but was outpaced over seven furlongs last time. He looked to me as though he was crying out for a longer trip at Ascot and I’d expect Johnny Murtagh to make plenty of use of him here.

He is closely weighted with Hannon’s Wentworth on that run so looks worth a bet at twice the price. I just cannot get my old friend Prince of Johannes right as I’ve backed him either side of his Sandown victory. He will probably run well again here but I’m put off by his high draw.

Our Obsession made a pleasing start to her campaign when winning at York recently but the Galtres Stakes looks a tough assignment. Lady Cecil’s Songbird isn’t exactly blessed with a devastating turn of foot but she keeps on galloping and that is what you need in a race like this. I’ll stick with her to make amends for her narrow defeat at Newbury.

Nezar looked sure to win last time at Newbury but lost in the final stride. The opening race is about as tough as it gets but 12-1 or thereabouts warrants an each-way bet. Haggas relies on Ghasabah in the closing race and the filly looks sure to go close after a decent run at Newmarket. She had to challenge wide that day and, no sooner had she collared the leader, than Malekat Jamal appeared on her outside to grab the spoils. The stable think a fair bit of Ghasabah and she can regain the winning thread here.

Nezar 1.55 12-1 William Hill

J Wonder 2.30 3-1 Paddy Power

Queensberry Rules 3.05 10-1 William Hill

Venus de Milo 3.40 11-4 William Hill

Songbird 4.20 5-1 Bet365

Ghasabah 4.55 13-2 Boylesports