Tag: Willie Mullins

Champion Chase Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

If you were only allowed to watch one race at the Cheltenham festival this year, it would surely be the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy have their own fanatical following but both have endured a troubled lead-up to the race.

Up against them are the young pretenders, Dodging Bullets and Champagne Fever. Paul Nicholls must be delighted that Dodging Bullets has dodged the spotlight despite victories in the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House Chase (tipped on both occasions on Betcirca).

If Sprinter Sacre returns to his best form it is difficult to see him being beaten. However, it is impossible to know whether he will ever be as good as he was before that unfortunate incident at Kempton. Nicky Henderson has been cautiously optimistic and he did travel well for a long way at Ascot but there is always the dreaded “bounce factor” to consider.

Sire de Grugy will have his usual entourage of scarf-waving supporters after a comfortable win at Chepstow put him back on course for the race. His jumping went to pieces at Newbury on his previous start and we have now been told about his special shoes to cope with a corn on his foot. Both he and Sprinter Sacre are proven champions but it has been a difficult road to Cheltenham.

Dodging Bullets started his season with a third behind Uxizandre and he may just have needed the run that day. He gave us a 9-1 winner in the Tingle Creek when beating Somersby and followed up at 7-2 by spoiling Sprinter Sacre’s return party. I fancied him for the Arkle last year but he ran too freely and didn’t get home, finishing back in fourth behind Western Warhorse.

The unlucky horse that day was Champagne Fever who had been given a super ride by Ruby Walsh only to be collared by a 33-1 shot. Mullins has so many favourites running next week that Champagne Fever has also missed the headline makers. He won easily recently to restore his confidence over fences and he has won at this meeting twice before. With so much speed in the field, they won’t be hanging about and I can see Champagne Fever battling his way up the hill once again.

It is difficult to oppose Dodging Bullets but I just have reservations about him at this track. He has just curled up here in the past on the run-in so I am siding with Champagne Fever at 6-1 with Paddy Power.

William Hill money-back offer on Supreme Hurdle

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The Cheltenham Special offers are coming thick and fast now with William Hill announcing a great money-back offer on the opening race of the meeting.

Paddy Power are offering money back on losing bets in the Supreme Hurdle and the Arkle Chase if the Willie Mullins-trained Douvan or Un De Sceaux prove successful. The offer applies up to £50 per customer.

William Hill are also focussing on the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but will refund ALL losing bets, irrespective of the result, up to maximum of £25 per customer. The stakes will be refunded as free bets in your William Hill account and the offer starts from 8.30am on Friday.

You need to bet via mobile or online to claim back the £25 which must then be staked within 24 hours. Betting shop customers can claim a refund of £10 which must be invested in the following race at the meeting, the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase.

The Supreme will be a very significant race for bookmakers this year, even more so than usual. Mullins, top trainer at the meeting for the past two seasons, saddles 7-4 favourite Douvan who is the first of four (possibly five) favourites for the stable on the opening day. There will doubles, trebles and accumulators in their thousands resting on the shoulders of Ruby Walsh in the opener.

The big danger is Nicky Henderson’s L’Ami Serge who would be favourite in a normal year. He won the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown by 14 lengths and is unbeaten in three races since arriving from France. There was no disguising Henderson’s confidence in the horse at his recent media day at the Lambourn stables and there will be plenty willing to take the 4-1 on offer with a money-back guarantee!

Although there are currently 83 entries for the race, there are relatively few serious contenders. Several have entries in the other novice races at the meeting but Jollyallan will have his supporters with Tony McCoy likely to take the ride. Harry Fry’s gelding is owned by JP McManus and was just beaten by Garde La Victoire in a Listed race last time. You can currently get 9-1 about Jollyallan with William Hill.

Remember, the refund only applies up to a maximum of £25 per customer or £10 to retail customers. (Open to win and each-way bets)

Latest William Hill prices; 7-4 Douvan, 4-1 L’Ami Serge, 9-1 Jollyallan

Champion Hurdle Ante-Post Preview

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The Champion Hurdle is the feature race of the opening day of the Cheltenham festival and the betting market suggests that a new champion will be crowned on March 10th.

Faugheen has been at the head of the market all season and remains unbeaten in eight races for Willie Mullins. The gelding won the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle last year over two and a half miles and has won his trials at Ascot and Kempton this season. The form of both races is open to question, particularly the Christmas Hurdle where Irving and Sign Of A Victory both ran way below expectations.

When we think of the greatest hurdlers such as Sea Pigeon, See You Then and Istabraq, we think of their brilliant hurdling technique as well as their speed. Faugheen has not been entirely convincing at his hurdles this season and this will be his first real test at two-mile championship pace. Odds of around 5-4 look decidedly skinny.

Plenty of people will be hoping to see the old warrior Hurricane Fly win the race for a third time having been successful in 2011 and 2013. It would be truly remarkable to reclaim his title for a second time but it is by no means impossible. He has beaten the reigning champion Jezki three times this season and yet is still available at 8-1 with most firms. Hatton’s Grace (1951) and Sea Pigeon (1981) are the only horses to have previously won this race at the age of eleven and there is no doubt that he is in their class.

Jezki has had a similar campaign to last season when everything fell right for him on Champion Hurdle day. He looked held when being brought almost to a standstill at the final flight at Leopardstown and may be better suited by being held up at the back of the field. He was passed on the run-in by another Mullins runner in Arctic Fire and he could easily be good enough to sneak into the frame.

He was just beaten in the County Hurdle last year but has gone up nearly a stone in the official ratings since. He tracked Hurricane Fly’s run through last time and similar tactics could see him finish in the money at Cheltenham. The New One has won all five races since his unlucky run here last year when hampered by the fall of the ill-fated Our Conor. Like Faugheen, he won the two and a half mile novice at this meeting and is arguably a better horse over that distance.

Arctic Fire @16-1 Stan James

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (Non-runner – no bet)

Paddy Power Cheltenham money-back offer

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Paddy Power have come unstuck in previous years with their generous money-back offers at Cheltenham and they are at it again this year!

In 2012 they offered refunds on all losing bets in the Arkle Chase if odds-on favourite Sprinter Sacre won. Nicky Henderson’s star chaser made short work of his rivals and the following year is was Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle. Last season Vautour romped to victory in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle with Paddy Power refunding bets on the placed horses.

The firm are to refund all losing bets as a free bet on two races at this year’s festival. Willie Mullins is responsible for the favourite in each with Douvan in the Supreme and Un De Sceaux in the Arkle. With the former currently 7-4 favourite and Un De Sceaux the shortest priced favourite of the meeting at 4-7, it is probably a way of generating some interest in the other runners. The offer applies to all bets up to £50/€50 per customer per race.

The offer will be of particular interest to punters who fancy those closest to the favourites in each race. There is a lot of confidence behind Nicky Henderson’s L’Ami Serge in the Supreme and he is currently trading at 9-2 with the Irish firm. The French import remains unbeaten and was particularly impressive when winning the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown last time out.

The market is similarly lopsided in the Arkle Chase with Vibrato Valtat offered at 5-1 with 10-1 bar. Paul Nicholls trains the grey who has won his last three races over fences culminating in the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick earlier this month. He cruised clear to beat Top Gamble by four and a half lengths to follow up his win at Kempton in December.

He is available at 11-2 elsewhere but the 5-1 with the refund offer should Un De Sceaux fluff his lines is well worth considering. L’Ami Serge is generally 4-1 with other firms so the 9-2 will make plenty of appeal to supporters of Nicky Henderson’s star novice. There does not appear to be much depth to the field for the Supreme and the market currently revolves around the two horses. With non-runner – no bet also applying, it could be a good time to get on the second favourites.

L’Ami Serge @9-2 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Vibrato Valtat @5-1 Arkle Chase

*Paddy Power special terms apply

Thyestes Chase Preview

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The Cheltenham trials will be coming thick and fast in the coming weeks and Gowran Park could provide some pointers on Thursday. The feature race is the Thyestes Chase, won last year by subsequent Gold Cup runner-up On His Own.

Willie Mullins tries to follow up with the lightly-raced Djakadam, a disappointing favourite in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November. The gelding won the Grade 2 Killiney Novices’ Chase at Leopardstown last season but fell four from home in the JLT Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham festival.

He travelled nicely into contention at Newbury but weakened quickly in the straight. He could prove to be well handicapped off a mark of 145 but this will be a real test of stamina in the heavy ground. Considering his lack of jumping experience, I am prepared to look elsewhere for the winner.

Gallant Oscar looks to have been aimed at this by Tony Martin, having been kept over hurdles so far this season. He was quietly fancied for the Irish National in April but parted company with Davy Condon at the thirteenth. Better value may be the French import, Sadler’sflaure, trained by Jessica Harrington.

It is impossible to compare French and Irish form but he was four times a winner in his native country and ran well when chasing home Grand Jesture at Punchestown last month. That was only his second run since joining Harrington and he could be ready to run a big race on Thursday.

Goonyella ran in the Welsh National and the Irish National last season and likes it when the mud is flying. He was not disgraced behind Living Next Door last time out while The Job Is Right also ran well in that race. He came out and won at Punchestown but this will be three races in quick succession.

Earlier in the day, Monksland can book his place in the World Hurdle field by winning the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle. The eight-year-old was having his first race for two years when third to Lieutenant Colonel at Leopardstown last month and holds Dedigout, Zaidpour and Briar Hill on that form.

Noel Meade’s gelding was third to Simonsig in the Neptune and won the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown in 2012 before injury intervened. He was as short as 5-1 for the World Hurdle after that and is a proven winner in heavy ground. With normal improvement, he should confirm the form with Briar Hill who was not that impressive last season in his prep races before falling at the festival. His future may lie over fences and Monksland can get back on the winning trail here.

Monksland 2.15 Gowran Park @6-4 Paddy Power

Sadler’sflaure 3.15 Gowran Park @8-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Greatwood Hurdle Preview

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The Greatwood Hurdle is the big betting race at Cheltenham on Sunday, for which the bookmakers have made Nicky Henderson’s Vaniteux the clear favourite.

Their odds are based on his excellent third behind Vautour in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the festival meeting in March. Many pundits consider Vautour a live prospect for the Champion Hurdle this season so it is easy to understand their reasoning.

It looked a good quality renewal of the Supreme with Josses Hill, a stable companion of Vaniteux, finishing in second and Irving and Gilgamboa among those well beaten. Henderson rates Vaniteux very highly but it may be worth remembering that he has only raced four times for Henderson and must carry top weight of 11st 12lb.

With the going certain to be testing, I would rather side with something at the other end of the handicap and Clondaw Warrior catches the eye. He is trained by Willie Mullins and won the November Handicap on the flat on his most recent start. That victory was off a mark 34lbs higher than his official rating when joining the Mullins stable.

He is yet to race over hurdles for his new stable but if he shows anything like the same improvement as he has displayed on the flat, he looks very leniently treated. Mullins has also declared Daneking but most bookmakers are offering non-runner/no bet on the race. He makes plenty of each-way appeal here at 8-1.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Goodwood Mirage tended to walk through his hurdles last season but showed more respect for them under a good ride from McCoy at Wetherby on his seasonal debut. He was useful on the flat but just seems too close to the top weight after a hefty 9lbs rise. Garde Le Victoire is also prone to clout a couple of flights and did so again when beaten by Hawk High at Aintree last time.

David Pipe relies on Imperial Cup winner Baltimore Rock but he is now 15lbs higher in the weights than when winning at Sandown. Pearl Swan was a promising novice for Paul Nicholls a couple of seasons ago but surely cannot overcome an absence of almost two years. His stable companion Katgary ran poorly at Aintree and will need to improve to figure here.

Vaniteux should run well but I am siding with Clondaw Warrior to make the weight tell in the closing stages and take the prize back to Ireland.

Clondaw Warrior @8-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4