Tag: Willie Mullins

Punchestown Friday Preview

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The bookies had a field day at Punchestown on Thursday with winners returned at 25-1 (twice), 20-1 (twice), 14-1, 10-1, 8-1 and 5-1. I don’t think even Mystic Meg will have had Jetson doubled up with God’s Own in the two Group 1 races!

Nothing if not game, we battle on into Friday’s card with Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh looking to hold a strong hand once again. The feature race is the Champion Hurdle which sadly has attracted just three runners. You do sometimes wonder what goes through trainer’s minds. There must be a hundred horses that ran at Cheltenham or Aintree that could have been guaranteed third place here at the very least.

The race sees a re-match between Cheltenham winner Jezki and the beaten favourite Hurricane Fly. He was only fourth at the festival with most pundits happy to assume that age is catching up with the horse. Now aged ten, he was bidding to become the oldest winning Champion Hurdler since Sea Pigeon but found disappointingly little in the straight.

Ruby Walsh was reluctant to accept the form on face value and it is worth remembering that he had beaten Jezki twice prior to Cheltenham. This has surely got to come down to a tactical battle and Hurricane Fly has proved time and again that he can win off any pace.

You won’t get rich by backing Vautour in the Champion Novices’ Hurdle but he looks impossible to oppose. He has a very similar profile to Faugheen who romped home earlier in the week and should see off his rivals tomorrow. It is curious that Mullins elected to drop Faugheen back to two miles and step Vautour up to two and a half, the exact opposite to their Cheltenham victories. Lac Fontana looked as tough as old boots when winning at Aintree but will need Vautour to have an off day to get near him.

Arctic Fire can complete the Mullins-Walsh treble in the following novice hurdle. He looked set to win the County Hurdle at the festival but was just run out of it by Lac Fontana. He was well backed that day and looked to have done everything right. The only doubt must be whether he will have recovered from such a hard race but he stands out on form.

If the bookies were partying on Thursday night, they could be crying into their beer by the time Warne lines up against On The Fringe in the last. I was impressed with Warne at Aintree and the win was never in doubt from half-way.

Hurricane Fly 5.30 at 11-10 Paddy Power

Vautour 6.05 at 2-5 William Hill

Arctic Fire 6.40 at 4-5 Bet365

Warne 7.45 at 9-4 Bet365

Punchestown Thursday Preview

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Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh did us proud on Wednesday with a thrilling Punchestown Gold Cup victory for Boston Bob. They look set to star again on Thursday with the great mare Quevega and the talented grey Champagne Fever in action.

Quevega needs no introduction having won the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle for the last six seasons. That record is surely going to stand for a very long time but she is also the winner of the past four World Series Hurdles at Punchestown. She goes for a fifth consecutive victory tomorrow and it is difficult to justify opposing her.

At Fishers Cross has not won this season, although he has run some good races. Last time out at Aintree he was unable to get past Coral Cup winner Whisper but may have had a valid excuse. Apparently he trod on a shoe at some point in the race and that cannot have helped. He was well beaten in the World Hurdle but the ground was not really soft enough for him and nor will it be tomorrow.

I’ve also got plenty of respect for Fingal Bay who lumped 11st 11lb to victory in the Pertemps Final. That is always the sign of a classy hurdler and he is entitled to take his chance at this level. Hobbs and Johnson have enjoyed a great run in recent weeks and it would be no surprise to see this one give the favourite most to do.

Alan King’s Balder Succes has helped this column out on a couple of occasions this season but I think he may meet his match tomorrow in Champagne Fever. I haven’t been a great supporter of Champagne Fever in the past but I thought he was desperately unlucky to catch Western Warhorse on a good day at the festival. Ruby Walsh must have been sickened to get done on the run-in like that but he can gain handsome compensation on Thursday.

For the treble I am going to side with AP McCoy on Ned Buntline in the handicap at 4.15. This one ran particularly well to finish second at the festival, coming from well off the pace. It’s a big field so he will need a bit of luck in running but must have a favourite’s chance. The bet of the day at Redcar is Zaawia in the maiden at 2.55. The daughter of Elnadim finished sixth in a hot Newbury maiden first time out and should make no mistake here for Ed Dunlop.

Ned Buntline 4.15 Punchestown at 5-1 Coral

Quevega 5.30 Punchestown at 10-11 Bet365

Champagne Fever 6.40 Punchestown at 13-8 BetVictor

Zaawia 2.55 Redcar

Punchestown Tuesday Preview

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The Punchestown Festival keeps National Hunt fans entertained this week with a host of Cheltenham and Aintree horses on show. Following festival form can be a recipe for disaster at this stage of the season as Punchestown but it is hard to get away from it tomorrow.

The feature race is the Champion Chase which looks wide open. Module and Somersby were no match for Sire De Grugy at the festival and will probably dominate the market. Module needed every yard of the two miles at Newbury in heavy ground to peg back Dodging Bullets and again looked short of pace at Cheltenham. His best form is over two and a half miles, although he is very closely matched with Somersby on Exeter form.

Hidden Cyclone has been on the go all winter and has been running well. He certainly wouldn’t be winning out of turn if he were to win here. I’m just favouring David Pipe’s Ballynagour here at an each-way price. He won at the festival with any amount in hand and ran a fair race at Aintree. He looked as though he would win between the last two but was outstayed after the last.

The RSA Chase form took a knock at Aintree with a disappointing run from O’Faolains Boy but I’d be inclined to put a rule through it. Four of those involved in that race turn out again for the Novice Champion Chase tomorrow including the third Morning Assembly and fourth Ballycasey. Interestingly, Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Djakadam who fell in the JLT Novices’ Chase when still in contention.

It is difficult to make a comparison between that race and the RSA, but Walsh clearly feels Djakadam will be a force over this trip and that just about tips the balance. Walsh should certainly be on the score-sheet in the Champion Novice Hurdle with Faugheen who was one of the most impressive winners of festival week. He drops back half a mile here but was always racing keenly that day and should not be inconvenienced.

Sgt Reckless stayed on to be fourth at Cheltenham and then finished runner-up to Josses Hill. He didn’t seem to find as much off the bridle as seemed likely and Faugheen should have his measure.

Faugheen 4.20 Punchestown at 8-11 Ladbrokes

Ballynagour 5.30 Punchestown at 17-2 888Sport

Djakadam 6.40 Punchestown at 11-4 Paddy Power

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle Preview

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With Cheltenham now only three weeks away, it is worth scouring the Internet for some great value prices. If you have a Sportsbet account, they are advertising some fantastic prices for the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle.

The horse that is a relatively short priced favourite in the UK is Ireland’s Faugheen who is unbeaten after five races. His most recent success came in a Grade 3 at Limerick in December over three miles. Connections are confident that he is quick enough to win over two but are favouring the Neptune at present. Sportsbet have him priced at 10-1 so now is the time to move in if you fancy him strongly.

The Tullow Tank is another Irish raider with top class form and looks likely to run here in preference to the Supreme following his second place behind Vautour. The Willie Mullins-trained winner looks very smart and Ruby Walsh was able to dictate the pace and quicken all the way up the finishing straight. It was no disgrace to finish a staying on second and Cheltenham should provide The Tullow Tank with a sufficient test.

Mullins has several options for this race with Briar Hill and Rathvinden standing out at present. Briar Hill won the Champion Bumper last season but has failed to capture the imagination this season. He has continued winning but without impressing and I could see him being saved for the three-mile Albert Bartlett.

Rathvinden was closing on Deputy Dan when  falling at Warwick and then ran a great race behind Red Sherlock at Cheltenham. The winner kept finding extra and looks a typical Pipe horse that just keeps on going. Sportsbet are showing 20-1 about Red Sherlock and you won’t even get half of that over in the UK.

Pipe also has Saturday’s easy Ascot winner Un Temps Pour Tout in the race. He was only second to Zamdy Man on his hurdling debut and you could tell connections were a little shell-shocked that he was beaten. He put matters straight with an easy win at the weekend and the extra half-mile may have been the key to him. Pipe is going to enter him in handicaps but I cannot see him taking that route unless the handicapper is unusually kind. If you fancy him, take the 25-1 with Sportsbet.

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham)

Faugheen at 10-1 Sportsbet

Red Sherlock at 20-1 Sportsbet

Un Temps Pour Tout at 25-1 Sportsbet

Thyestes Chase Preview

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The main jumping action on Thursday is over in Ireland at Gowran Park with the valuable Thyestes Chase. This race has been won in the past by Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde so has a reputation as something of a Grand National trial. On His Own won here two years ago but failed to add to the roll of honour at Aintree.

Willie Mullins was hopeful of On His Own in the National last year with Ruby Walsh on board but he faded tamely. It was a disappointing effort and he has only shown glimmers of form since, most recently when running on at the end of the Becher Chase. I’m not too sure what to make of that run because the winner Chance Du Roy ran no race at all at Haydock last weekend.

The going is certain to be on the slow side so the answer to this tricky race surely lies lower down the handicap. Jim Dreaper and Andrew Lynch are a combination to be respected and I like the look of Los Amigos. Most of these have only patchy recent form by Los Amigos appears to be still improving and adapted successfully to win over hurdles last time out.

Dreaper has admitted a slight concern over his lack of experience for a tough race like this but is hopeful that he will see out the trip. Ruby Walsh is aboard the top weight Vesper Bell but it is hard to fancy him after two failed trips across the water. He fell at the first in the Becher and then unseated his rider in the Warwick Classic.

Balnaslow may turn out to be the best of the four Mullins runners but he is closely weighted with Hunting Party on Thurles form from October. He came out on top that day by a length and a quarter but Hunting Party has a 5lbs pull and seems to have improved since. A win over this course will hold Hunting Party in good stead but he also tipped up at the first in the Paddy Power Chase.

Paul Carberry is in the saddle on Thursday and I’d imagine it would be the usual hold up tactics from the maestro. If he can get the horse safely over the first few fences and popping away in midfield, he could feature here and is attractively priced at 16-1. Trainer Dessie Hughes won here with Siegemaster in 2011 often targets this race.

The Troytown Chase winner Cootamundra has been put up 10lbs for that victory and that may prove too much Playing is on a hat-trick and acts well on this ground. He went up 11lbs after bolting up at Limerick and now a further 14lbs for winning in similar fashion at Cork. You don’t see many 11 year old horses improving so rapidly but 14-1 looks too big with BetVictor.

Paul Sweeney has put blinkers on the formerly useful Panther Claw and booked Barry Geraghty. I always tend to look at previous runnings of these big handicaps and he was third last year so could run better than of late.

I’d say the same of runner-up Tarquinius but he has looked well below his best and I’d be surprised if Gordon Elliott can get him sharp enough to win this.

Los Amigos at 8-1 Paddy Power

Playing at 14-1 BetVictor

Hunting Party at 16-1 Bet365

Leopardstown Friday Preview

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The King George confirmed Silviniaco Conti as a serious Gold Cup contender with his stamina proving decisive in the closing stages. Credit to Cue Card for running so well until tiring between the last two fences but I have to say that he does not look like a Gold Cup horse. If he was going to win over three and a quarter miles at Cheltenham he would surely have managed three miles around Kempton.

The Christmas Hurdle turned into the predicted duel between The New One and My Tent Or Yours and I was very surprised by Tom Scudamore’s tactics on the runner-up. Twice previously he has accepted the blame for hitting the front too soon and yet here he was setting the pace? Presumably he felt that he could not beat My Tent Or Yours in a six furlong sprint. It was inconclusive as far as the Champion Hurdle goes.

The highlight of Kempton’s card on Friday is the Desert Orchid Chase in which Sprinter Sacre reappears against Tingle Creek winner Sire De Grugy. Almost unbelievably, the race is not televised. Something must be wrong when Channel 4 cannot even screen the best chaser in training? He should extend his winning sequence to eleven but won’t be a betting proposition/

The same cannot be said of Cause Of Causes in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown. Tony McCoy teams up with the former winner of Ascot’s Ladbroke Hurdle in preference to three other JP McManus-owned runners.

The Gordon Elliott-trained five-year-old was smart over hurdles but has been slow to warm to steeplechasing. He has been beaten in modest company but appeared to be finally getting the hang of it last time out and looks well weighted on 10st 11lb.

He battled on well under Ruby Walsh to finish second to Sraid Padraig at Fairyhouse in November. He will need to improve again to win this but he is a seriously good horse when he hits form and is worth a bet at around 12-1.

Willie Mullins suffered a couple of setbacks on Thursday when the odds-on Analifet and Champagne Fever were both well beaten. He will be hoping for better luck with Moyle Park in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at 1.50. The Tullow Tank and The Game Changer are both useful but it will be a major blow for Mullins if the highly-rated Moyle Park cannot win this.

The best bet on Kempton’s card is Nicky Henderson’s Grandouet who ran a fine race when second to Hinterland at Sandown. Barry Geraghty held him up behind the leaders and was just done for a little toe when Hinterland quickened approaching the last. Grandouet responded well to pressure and was closing him down at the line. A similar performance would be good enough to beat Dodging Bullets.

Grandouet at 10-11 Bet365, Coral

Moyle Park at 7-4 Bet365, Coral

Cause Of Causes at 12-1 Ladbrokes