Tag: York betting

York Ebor Meeting Day 4 Preview

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The 40-1 shock win of Jwala in the Nunthorpe just about sums up the week so far on the Knavesmire! Moviesta had won the King George at Goodwood with Jwala finishing last but this time it was the other way around. Apparently Jwala had banged her head leaving the stalls last time and was probably suffering from concussion. After three days of York, I know the feeling!

I thought at least Simenon would get a few pounds back in the Lonsdale but I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw him take up the running under Murtagh. I’d put the Irishman in the top half dozen riders at present but it hadn’t occurred to me that he’d be doing anything other than holding Simenon up for a late run against a fairly one-paced bunch. Not surprisingly, he found one staying on well enough to struggle past him in the long home straight.

Saturday’s card doesn’t exactly look like an easy way to get back on level terms with the Ebor backed up by an equally open looking Melrose Handicap. Havana Cooler looked like damned hard work at Goodwood when staying on to be third and I wouldn’t even be sure of him confirming the form with Van Percy and Elidor (fourth and fifth).

I think the bit of give in the ground may suit Van Percy more than some of these and the 7lb claimer puts him in on a good weight. He has also got a decent draw whereas a lot of the fancied runners are out wide so 14-1 with Stan James looks a fair each-way bet.

A couple of weeks ago I tipped Sun Central for the Ebor but the change of going and being lumbered with top weight don’t bode well for his chances. A number of leading contenders are absent and Opinion now has an obvious chance under Ryan Moore. He never saw daylight in the slowly run Old Newton Cup and did well to finish as close as he did in fifth.

I may have been tempted to back Genzy who looked desperately unlucky not to catch Bishop Roko on his penultimate start. He was mixing it with some decent stayers at Newbury in the Geoffrey Freer and did well to finish fourth but he is drawn in the car park in stall 22. One who could run well at a huge price is Amanda Perrett’s Blue Surf. He has been fancied a couple of times this season but failed to land a blow and the ease in the ground may see some improvement.

He was actually joint-favourite for a competitive race at Goodwood last time but found himself trapped on the inside when the pace quickened and could only plod on at the one pace. He’s got a bit further to travel here but should be able to lie handy from stall 10 and rates a decent each-way alternative to the favourite.

Van Percy 14-1 Stan James

Opinion 6-1 Paddy Power

Blue Surf 33-1 Ladbrokes

York Ebor Meeting Day 3 Preview

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The highlight of the third day of the Ebor meeting is the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes. I previewed this race a couple of weeks ago and recommended the progressive three-year-old Moviesta at 8-1. Brian Smart’s sprinter has drawn stall 17 which looks to give him an advantage if the racing follows a similar pattern to the opening couple of days.

The place to be seems to be middle to high in the sprint races and few horses drawn low have managed to get involved in the closing stages. Having watched a replay of the King George at Goodwood, I felt that Swiss Spirit was a little unlucky not to finish closer. After a tardy start, he made up ground rapidly before being hampered close home as Moviesta jinked to his left. Trainer John Gosden was clocking up winners left, right and centre prior to the start of the Ebor meeting and got off the mark with The Fugue on Thursday. I think 8-1 is a good each-way bet for Swiss Spirit providing stall 7 does not prove an inconvenience.

Simenon gave us a thrill with our ante-post bet on the Ascot Gold Cup, chasing home Estimate in a thrilling race. The Melbourne Cup has been touted as a possible end of season target for the Irish stayer and he can book his place by winning the Lonsdale Stakes. His rivals don’t look to be blessed with his turn of foot and it should be a straight forward case of Murtagh producing him approaching the final furlong.

The Group 3 Strensall Stakes looks an ideal opportunity for Sir Michael Stoute’s Pavlosk to gain compensation for a desperately unlucky run at Goodwood. She was held up at the rear of the field, a tactic that invariably proved fatal at the Sussex track this year, before running on powerfully to finish fifth to Annecdote. There are question marks against several of her rivals including the hard-to-steer Gabrial and Chester winner Danadana. Hopefully there will be a strong enough pace for Pavlosk to cut them down in the straight.

Mark Johnston’s Broxbourne cut down her stable companion Party Line on the opening day of the meeting and that horse could be back for more in the opener. Normally you would question a horse running again so quickly but Johnston’s horses are a rule unto themselves. This shorter trip could be ideal and 12-1 looks a fair price in an open contest.

Party Line 12-1 Paddy Power

Simenon 13-8 William Hill

Pavlosk 3-1 Bet365

*Moviesta 8-1 ante-post

Swiss Spirit 8-1 Coral

York Ebor Meeting Day 2 Preview

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Broxbourne got us out of trouble on the opening day with a 6-1 winner. The Ladies take centre stage at York on Thursday with the Yorkshire Oaks and the Lowther Stakes the feature races. The Yorkshire Oaks provides a bit of a conundrum with The Fugue attempting a mile and a half for the fourth time having been beaten on all three previous attempts.

To be fair, she suffered interference in the Oaks and was only beaten a neck in this race a year ago but the general consensus is still that she is better at a mile and a quarter. I was impressed with Wild Coco at Goodwood but connections have always said that she needs a bit of cut and it seemed pretty quick on the Knavesmire on Wednesday. The one to be on could be Venus de Milo who was second in the Irish Oaks to the wayward French filly Chicquita before recording an easy victory at the Curragh.

The two-year-olds have just about got me stumped this season. Nothing stands out in the Lowther Stakes and J Wonder is put up as favourite despite only winning a nursery. However, the way the third home came out and won a decent race at Newmarket at the weekend suggests the form may be worth following.

William Haggas has had a tremendous season, particularly in the big handicaps. He has several horses with chances tomorrow including Queensberry Rules in the mile handicap at 3.05. This horse stayed on well in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot but was outpaced over seven furlongs last time. He looked to me as though he was crying out for a longer trip at Ascot and I’d expect Johnny Murtagh to make plenty of use of him here.

He is closely weighted with Hannon’s Wentworth on that run so looks worth a bet at twice the price. I just cannot get my old friend Prince of Johannes right as I’ve backed him either side of his Sandown victory. He will probably run well again here but I’m put off by his high draw.

Our Obsession made a pleasing start to her campaign when winning at York recently but the Galtres Stakes looks a tough assignment. Lady Cecil’s Songbird isn’t exactly blessed with a devastating turn of foot but she keeps on galloping and that is what you need in a race like this. I’ll stick with her to make amends for her narrow defeat at Newbury.

Nezar looked sure to win last time at Newbury but lost in the final stride. The opening race is about as tough as it gets but 12-1 or thereabouts warrants an each-way bet. Haggas relies on Ghasabah in the closing race and the filly looks sure to go close after a decent run at Newmarket. She had to challenge wide that day and, no sooner had she collared the leader, than Malekat Jamal appeared on her outside to grab the spoils. The stable think a fair bit of Ghasabah and she can regain the winning thread here.

Nezar 1.55 12-1 William Hill

J Wonder 2.30 3-1 Paddy Power

Queensberry Rules 3.05 10-1 William Hill

Venus de Milo 3.40 11-4 William Hill

Songbird 4.20 5-1 Bet365

Ghasabah 4.55 13-2 Boylesports

Nunthorpe Stakes Ante-Post Preview

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Lethal Force may have established himself as the top sprinter in UK and Ireland with victories at Royal Ascot and Newmarket but he is not among the entries for the Nunthorpe. Sole Power and Shea Shea, both behind Clive Cox’s grey in the July Cup, are currently 5-1 joint-favourites but both have had plenty of racing.

Last week I was celebrating keeping faith with Moviesta when he won the King George Stakes after two unlucky defeats in top three-year-old handicaps. I was surprised to read that trainer Brian Smart was “stunned” by Moviesta’s performance. Having witnessed the horse fly jumping in his earlier races I always felt that he would settle better off a really fast pace and Goodwood’s five-furlong dash fitted the bill perfectly. He ran out a convincing winner with many of the season’s leading sprinters left trailing in his wake.

Three-year-olds have a decent record in the Nunthorpe in recent seasons with Sole Power and Margot Did winning in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Is Moviesta in that class? I think he is and he rates a cracking each-way bet at 8-1. Smart has already declared his intention to run and there aren’t any obvious ground concerns for the improving gelding.

Of the favourites, I respect Sole Power most because this is his trip. He too needs a really fast pace to produce his best and he could not quite sustain his run over six furlongs at Newmarket. He is going to be a threat if he can be kept ticking over after a long season that started way back in the spring in Dubai. I have the same reservations about Shea Shea and he races as though six furlongs is more his cup of tea.

Reckless Abandon has missed some key engagements through minor knocks this season but showed plenty of promise at Haydock earlier in the season. I still feel that six furlongs will suit him better than five and I think that was his undoing at Ascot.

Society Rock is the pick of the remainder after some consistent efforts. He grabbed Lethal Force on the line at York in the Duke Of York Stakes and is a tough, seasoned competitor in these events. I don’t see a threat coming from anything that finished behind Moviesta at Goodwood and I can see his price contracting still further before the race.

Moviesta 8-1 Paddy Power

York Charity Sprint Trophy Preview

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The big race of the weekend is the Charity Sprint Trophy at York, a race that has been won by some smart three-year-olds in the past. The last favourite to oblige was Tax Free in 2005 so it is a race to approach with caution.

The bookmakers certainly don’t seem quite sure what to make of it and have gone 7-1 the field. Heavens Guest and Moviesta have been installed as the early market leaders having both won last time out. Heavens Guest stepped up in grade from Hamilton Park to land a decent seven-furlong handicap at Epsom and represents Richard Fahey.

Heavens Guest is up 7lbs for his neck victory over Intrigo but he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by dropping back in trip. He was a good couple of lengths clear approaching the final furlong. Moviesta won here over five furlongs on softer ground last month and has gone up 6lbs in the ratings. The margin of victory was only a nose from Vincentti but jockey Paul Mulrennan got to the front quite early and always looked to have matters under control. Vincentti will have his supporters after that effort and certainly has excellent place claims on that effort.

He had previously won at Doncaster over six furlongs, running freely early on before being reigned back and produced late. He was more impressive on his last start and looks capable of further improvement. Brian Smart knows the time of day in these sprint races and I imagine that this race has been the plan for a while.

Cosmic Chatter runs in the Highclere colours and was close up behind Smoothtalkinrascal and Lucky Beggar here last month. The horse is yet to race beyond five furlongs and is short enough on what he has achieved to date. Lucky Beggar was easily put in his place by Richard Hannon’s Professor at Haydock last weekend and will do well to bounce back here.

Ralph Beckett’s Lewisham is an interesting runner. He was last seen hacking up on the all-weather at Kempton, a preparation that didn’t hinder Niceofyoutotellme before winning at Newmarket. Last season Lewisham was runner-up in the July Stakes so there is no doubting his ability. He holds Ahern and Chilworth Icon on that form. If the maiden race has boosted his confidence he could be thrown in here with just 8st 8lb.

Hasopop carries top weight and won a decent race at Newmarket before finishing third at Epsom. He didn’t get the best of runs in a muddling race that day but he will do well to win off a mark of 105. William Haggas is no mug in these races either and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Odooj step up on a moderate effort at Newmarket. The application of the blinkers for the first time and the one stall could light him up.

Moviesta looks the most progressive of these but Vincentti must have an each-way shout. I will also be having a small saver on Lewisham as he could be the best handicapped horse in the race.

Moviesta 9-1 Paddy Power
Vincentti (each-way) 12-1 Bet365
Lewisham 16-1 Paddy Power