Tag: York tips

York Friday Preview

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Graphic makes a quick reappearance for William Haggas in a competitive race at York tomorrow after his fine fourth in the Cambridgeshire. The four-year-old was boldly ridden from the front by Frankie Dettori but could not sustain the gallop in the closing stages. Even so, it was a decent effort in one of the toughest handicaps of the season and he looks to have a great chance off just a 3lb higher mark on Friday.

Ryan Moore has been booked to take the ride and I would expect him to be ridden with a little more restraint. The early stages could be crucial from his stall 16 draw but hopefully Moore can settle him in just behind the leaders. He certainly looked progressive in his previous race when winning a valuable race on the all-weather at Kempton and I would expect him to go off shorter than the early 5-1.

Dangers include Luca Cumani’s Rockalong who chased home Brownsea Brink at Newmarket and Levitate who was part of Oisin Murphy’s four-timer at Ayr last month. The young apprentice is being carefully managed by Andrew Balding in the hope that he will derive as much benefit as possible from his 5lb claim. He gave us a winner last week with a fine ride on Ballinderry Boy and could be back in the headlines on Friday with five booked rides.

Dungannon could certainly go close in the sprint at 2.30 following victories at Ascot and Haydock. Despite being up 5lbs for his latest win, there is every prospect of the six-year-old improving again. Unusually for a horse that had won his previous outing, Dungannon wore blinkers for the first time at Haydock and won more impressively than at Ascot. It could be that he still has another victory in him and he looks good value at 7-1 or thereabouts.

Murphy rides Van Percy for Balding in the 4.15 but this one looks tricky to win with. He scraped home at Haydock in the summer but generally does not find a great deal off the bridle. It would not surprise me to see him coasting up to the leaders early in the straight but I’d rather invest in Luca Cumani’s Elhaame. He ran well in a decent race at Ascot last time, his first attempt at this trip. He could still be improving and 5-1 looks a reasonable bet on a typically competitive end of season card.

Dungannon (2.30 York) 7-1 Ladbrokes

Graphic 5-1 (3.05 York) 5-1 Ladbrokes

Elhaame 5-1 (4.15 York) 5-1 William Hill, Bet365

York Ebor Meeting Day 4 Preview

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The 40-1 shock win of Jwala in the Nunthorpe just about sums up the week so far on the Knavesmire! Moviesta had won the King George at Goodwood with Jwala finishing last but this time it was the other way around. Apparently Jwala had banged her head leaving the stalls last time and was probably suffering from concussion. After three days of York, I know the feeling!

I thought at least Simenon would get a few pounds back in the Lonsdale but I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw him take up the running under Murtagh. I’d put the Irishman in the top half dozen riders at present but it hadn’t occurred to me that he’d be doing anything other than holding Simenon up for a late run against a fairly one-paced bunch. Not surprisingly, he found one staying on well enough to struggle past him in the long home straight.

Saturday’s card doesn’t exactly look like an easy way to get back on level terms with the Ebor backed up by an equally open looking Melrose Handicap. Havana Cooler looked like damned hard work at Goodwood when staying on to be third and I wouldn’t even be sure of him confirming the form with Van Percy and Elidor (fourth and fifth).

I think the bit of give in the ground may suit Van Percy more than some of these and the 7lb claimer puts him in on a good weight. He has also got a decent draw whereas a lot of the fancied runners are out wide so 14-1 with Stan James looks a fair each-way bet.

A couple of weeks ago I tipped Sun Central for the Ebor but the change of going and being lumbered with top weight don’t bode well for his chances. A number of leading contenders are absent and Opinion now has an obvious chance under Ryan Moore. He never saw daylight in the slowly run Old Newton Cup and did well to finish as close as he did in fifth.

I may have been tempted to back Genzy who looked desperately unlucky not to catch Bishop Roko on his penultimate start. He was mixing it with some decent stayers at Newbury in the Geoffrey Freer and did well to finish fourth but he is drawn in the car park in stall 22. One who could run well at a huge price is Amanda Perrett’s Blue Surf. He has been fancied a couple of times this season but failed to land a blow and the ease in the ground may see some improvement.

He was actually joint-favourite for a competitive race at Goodwood last time but found himself trapped on the inside when the pace quickened and could only plod on at the one pace. He’s got a bit further to travel here but should be able to lie handy from stall 10 and rates a decent each-way alternative to the favourite.

Van Percy 14-1 Stan James

Opinion 6-1 Paddy Power

Blue Surf 33-1 Ladbrokes

York Ebor Meeting Day 2 Preview

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Broxbourne got us out of trouble on the opening day with a 6-1 winner. The Ladies take centre stage at York on Thursday with the Yorkshire Oaks and the Lowther Stakes the feature races. The Yorkshire Oaks provides a bit of a conundrum with The Fugue attempting a mile and a half for the fourth time having been beaten on all three previous attempts.

To be fair, she suffered interference in the Oaks and was only beaten a neck in this race a year ago but the general consensus is still that she is better at a mile and a quarter. I was impressed with Wild Coco at Goodwood but connections have always said that she needs a bit of cut and it seemed pretty quick on the Knavesmire on Wednesday. The one to be on could be Venus de Milo who was second in the Irish Oaks to the wayward French filly Chicquita before recording an easy victory at the Curragh.

The two-year-olds have just about got me stumped this season. Nothing stands out in the Lowther Stakes and J Wonder is put up as favourite despite only winning a nursery. However, the way the third home came out and won a decent race at Newmarket at the weekend suggests the form may be worth following.

William Haggas has had a tremendous season, particularly in the big handicaps. He has several horses with chances tomorrow including Queensberry Rules in the mile handicap at 3.05. This horse stayed on well in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot but was outpaced over seven furlongs last time. He looked to me as though he was crying out for a longer trip at Ascot and I’d expect Johnny Murtagh to make plenty of use of him here.

He is closely weighted with Hannon’s Wentworth on that run so looks worth a bet at twice the price. I just cannot get my old friend Prince of Johannes right as I’ve backed him either side of his Sandown victory. He will probably run well again here but I’m put off by his high draw.

Our Obsession made a pleasing start to her campaign when winning at York recently but the Galtres Stakes looks a tough assignment. Lady Cecil’s Songbird isn’t exactly blessed with a devastating turn of foot but she keeps on galloping and that is what you need in a race like this. I’ll stick with her to make amends for her narrow defeat at Newbury.

Nezar looked sure to win last time at Newbury but lost in the final stride. The opening race is about as tough as it gets but 12-1 or thereabouts warrants an each-way bet. Haggas relies on Ghasabah in the closing race and the filly looks sure to go close after a decent run at Newmarket. She had to challenge wide that day and, no sooner had she collared the leader, than Malekat Jamal appeared on her outside to grab the spoils. The stable think a fair bit of Ghasabah and she can regain the winning thread here.

Nezar 1.55 12-1 William Hill

J Wonder 2.30 3-1 Paddy Power

Queensberry Rules 3.05 10-1 William Hill

Venus de Milo 3.40 11-4 William Hill

Songbird 4.20 5-1 Bet365

Ghasabah 4.55 13-2 Boylesports

York Ebor Meeting Day 1 Preview

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We had some success on a busy Saturday with a couple of nice winners at Newbury and Dandino‘s victory in the American St Leger. I could not believe the price of Glen Moss (5-2) so I hope that you managed to get some of the early 11-2. Our ambitious 33-1 Dandino for the Melbourne Cup gives us something to dream about through the Autumn!

York’s Ebor meeting is always a mixture of top quality Group races and impossible handicaps and Wednesday’s opening day card illustrates the point perfectly. What better way to kick off the meeting than with a 20-runner five-furlong handicap? I’m going to take a stab at this one with Alan Jarvis’s Lady Gibraltar who was just touched off here by Secret Asset. Two runs previously she ran another blinder on this course when beaten only 3/4 of a length by Kingsgate Choice with subsequent Royal Ascot winner York Glory just behind. She clearly runs well here and sneaks in at the foot of the handicap. She is in the middle of the pack so the draw shouldn’t be her downfall and she’s worth an each-way punt at 14-1.

The Acomb Stakes should be interesting with the unbeaten First Flight and The Great Gatsby taken on by Clive Brittain’s Brazos. First Flight lost eight lengths at the start first time out but still won by three! If he starts off on level terms here he must have an outstanding chance whilst The Great Gatsby is an imposing grey who overcame greenness to deny Brazos here last time. I think 2-1 might be a shade generous for the Godolphin colt.

Some of the criticism of one-time Derby hope Telescope appears to have rattled the cage of Sir Michael Stoute judging by his comments earlier this week. In fairness, the colt only won an egg and spoon race by 24 lengths previously so it was no mean effort to finish second at Haydock. He was staying on well at the end and gets an extra two furlongs here. As I’ve backed Excess Knowledge for the Leger, I’m hoping that the form gets a boost from the Gordon Stakes. If Excess Knowledge was unlucky, then so too was Secret Number and it is not impossible that he can turn the form around with his stable companion.

The Juddmonte International looks more of a race to watch that get heavily involved in. Al Kazeem should win because it is his distance but the pace may be false unless Trading Leather is given a positive ride. I am surprised that Toronado is being turned out again so quickly after his epic victory at Goodwood.

I’m not quite sure what Lisa Allpress was trying to do on Broxbourne at Ascot last time but she stayed on all too late behind Homeric. With Fanning back in the plate I would expect to see the form reversed tomorrow and she could be a decent bet at 6-1 or so.

Lady Gibraltar 14-1 Boylesports

First Flight 2-1 Coral

Secret Number 5-1 Ladbrokes

Broxbourne 6-1 Ladbrokes

Nunthorpe Stakes Ante-Post Preview

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Lethal Force may have established himself as the top sprinter in UK and Ireland with victories at Royal Ascot and Newmarket but he is not among the entries for the Nunthorpe. Sole Power and Shea Shea, both behind Clive Cox’s grey in the July Cup, are currently 5-1 joint-favourites but both have had plenty of racing.

Last week I was celebrating keeping faith with Moviesta when he won the King George Stakes after two unlucky defeats in top three-year-old handicaps. I was surprised to read that trainer Brian Smart was “stunned” by Moviesta’s performance. Having witnessed the horse fly jumping in his earlier races I always felt that he would settle better off a really fast pace and Goodwood’s five-furlong dash fitted the bill perfectly. He ran out a convincing winner with many of the season’s leading sprinters left trailing in his wake.

Three-year-olds have a decent record in the Nunthorpe in recent seasons with Sole Power and Margot Did winning in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Is Moviesta in that class? I think he is and he rates a cracking each-way bet at 8-1. Smart has already declared his intention to run and there aren’t any obvious ground concerns for the improving gelding.

Of the favourites, I respect Sole Power most because this is his trip. He too needs a really fast pace to produce his best and he could not quite sustain his run over six furlongs at Newmarket. He is going to be a threat if he can be kept ticking over after a long season that started way back in the spring in Dubai. I have the same reservations about Shea Shea and he races as though six furlongs is more his cup of tea.

Reckless Abandon has missed some key engagements through minor knocks this season but showed plenty of promise at Haydock earlier in the season. I still feel that six furlongs will suit him better than five and I think that was his undoing at Ascot.

Society Rock is the pick of the remainder after some consistent efforts. He grabbed Lethal Force on the line at York in the Duke Of York Stakes and is a tough, seasoned competitor in these events. I don’t see a threat coming from anything that finished behind Moviesta at Goodwood and I can see his price contracting still further before the race.

Moviesta 8-1 Paddy Power