Tag: York

Sky Bet York Stakes Preview

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The feature race at York is the Sky Bet York Stakes which is being billed as a stroll in the park for Mukhadram after his gallant efforts against Al Kazeem. Needless to say, I won’t be snapping up the 4-7 but it is interesting that Paul Hanagan is so keen to retain his partnership with the colt that is prepared to forego a decent ride in the King George.

Those of us who shy away from odds-on “certainties” have a few interesting options here. I went for Wigmore Hall at Newmarket and immediately read an article by his trainer who more or less said that he was not fit! Presumably he has worked himself into better condition here but Apache could be more interesting. He is trained by Mick De Kock who has a habit of turning good horses into even better ones. He’s won and been placed at Meydan so he could give the favourite a run for his money.

Old Smarty Socks goes again in the 2.20 and he looks sure to go well after being desperately unlucky not to collect last time. The old boy could have gone to Ascot for the big handicap so this is an easier option. Even so, I’m a little surprised to see him as short as 4-1 in the betting and I’m going to go for another course specialist in Navajo Brave.

He has won on his last three trips to York including the Hambleton Handicap. The form book says the going was good but it was actually run in a tropical storm! He does have top weight but young Murphy takes off 5lbs and he’s more my kind of price at 9-1.

If you are looking for an impossible race to solve then take a look at the Sky Bet Dash! Apart from Nocturn earlier in the season I haven’t really had much joy with the sprinters this season but I think David Simcock may have laid out Gramercy for this. He was second in it last year when finishing like a train and his three runs this season suggest that he’s ready to produce his best. There is still a bit of 20-1 about.

Navajo Brave 9-1 Bet365
Apache 7-1 Stan James
Gramercy 20-1 Stan James

Horse Racing Preview – Saturday 13th July

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On Friday we suffered a bad case of Seconditis. The “Big Two” didn’t really fire after their victories at Royal Ascot. Rizeena seemed to hang fire and lug to her left when Doyle asked her to quicken. Perhaps the ground was too fast for her.

I’m not quite sure what to make of the Falmouth Stakes. As I mentioned in my preview, it is simply amazing how much trouble a jockey can find in a small field in the wide open spaces of Newmarket. There is no doubt that Elusive Kate would have been disqualified a few years ago for carrying Sky Lantern across the track. Apart from it being impossible to overtake something travelling diagonally in your path, the whip-cracking across the horse’s face just about put the tin hat on it!

You don’t realise how often this goes on until you see the head on footage. A classic case in point was the closing race of the Royal meeting when Shahwardi was swiped across the head by an exaggerated whipping action from Jimmy Fortune on the eventual winner. Apparently it is an accepted part of race riding. Because the jockey is facing forward, they are deemed to be unaware that they are smacking a rival over the face.

Anyway, not content with two seconds we finished off with Moviesta looking certain to win the sprint handicap and yet somehow failing to do so. Whether Mulrennan was over-confident I’m not sure but I suppose you have to hand it to Fahey’s filly, Heaven’s Guest. She has been on the go all season and just gives everything she’s got.

Our Saturday ante-post bets are on Shea Shea at 9-2 in the July Cup and Niceofyoutotellme at 12-1 in the Magnet Cup. I think the race planners have gone in for overkill this weekend as there is top quality racing at Newmarket, York and Ascot. The Magnet Cup is playing second fiddle to Newmarket which means Ascot’s Summer Mile gets third billing.

Aljamaaheer has been a good friend of mine, remarkable considering that he has still only won two races. I’ve backed him at big prices in the Lockinge and Queen Anne and collected handsomely on the each-way bet. Tomorrow he’s got to go and win a race and, on past experience, he will come second!

Godolphin’s two-year-olds are starting to get into overdrive and I think Outstrip could be one of the better ones. The horse he beat here last time bolted up on Friday and he should follow suit on Saturday.

I could write a book about the runners in the Bunbury Cup! There’s Brae Hill who seemingly likes to be alone in his races (as when winning last year), Dance And Dance trying to make up for being balloted out of the Hunt Cup and Excellent Guest who pops up when you least expect it. But I’m siding with the Irish raider Burn The Boats. He landed a gamble at the Curragh, stays a mile and could be less exposed than some of these.

Ascot also stages a £100,000 sprint handicap to open the card and last year’s 1,2,3 are back for more. I’m torn between Barnet Fair and Taajub as both ran eye-catching prep races last time out. I’m just going to go with Barnet Fair because he seems to finish his races better than Taajub.

Channel 4 are covering 10 races tomorrow. Apart from the fact that we get more racing, we also get less waffle!

Ante-Post
Niceofyoutotellme 12-1
Shea Shea 9-2

Aljamaaheer 5-2 William Hill
Outstrip 3-1 Coral
Burn The Boats 10-1 William Hill
Barnet Fair 10-1 Coral

York Magnet Cup Preview

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York’s Magnet Cup is always a great betting race and Saturday’s race has attracted a massive 42 declarations at the confirmation stage. There are some rapidly improving types amongst them and the two that stand out for me are Niceofyoutotellme and Nabucco, first and second at Newmarket last month.

John Gosden’s Nabucco did this column a favour when landing a handicap at the same venue but has incurred a 5lb penalty. That theoretically gives him a lot to do with Niceofyoutotellme, being 3lbs worse off with the horse that beat him a length.

As far as I am aware, both horses have been given the green light for the race and there are no major concerns about the fast ground. Ralph Beckett’s horse first caught my eye when finishing like a train to win on the all-weather and he produced a fine turn of foot to cut down Nabucco last time. The runner-up won nicely under a canny ride from Ryan Moore subsequently and could still be improving.

The draw has come to the rescue of the bookies on several occasions recently and I’m keeping my fingers crossed that these two smart horses are not given an impossible task. Ladbrokes are best on both horses and I expect both to shorten up.

The early favourite is Stencive, trained by William Haggas and ridden by the in-form Graham Lee. He was heavily backed when second to Opinion at Royal Ascot last month. I expressed reservations about the quality of that particular Ascot race last week and it was no real surprise that Opinion could not lump 9st 10lb to victory in the Old Newton Cup. Having said that, he ran creditably in a muddling sort of race and Stencive did give him too much rope at Ascot.

Sir Michael Stoute’s Rye House is a horse that I have been keen to follow since he bolted up at York earlier in the season but he has missed a number of engagements since. In fact, he was Moore’s intended mount at Ascot before switching to Opinion. I think his problem may be the ground as he does hit the ground quite hard. I’m guessing that Sir Michael is waiting for a bit of cut in the ground before risking him and I don’t see that happening this weekend.

Another progressive sort is Clon Brulee who absolutely hacked up at Ripon before following up in the Zetland Gold Cup. If he gets a favourable draw he could well prove a danger and he has the right profile for this race.

David Simcock’s Whispering Warrior keeps on winning and has gone up over two stone in the handicap this season. His only recent blemish came at Newmarket when he was baulked early on and could never get competitive. He looks like one of those horses who keeps a bit to himself in the closing stages and is another to consider in a fascinating contest.

For the moment, I shall pin my colours to the Newmarket form and hope that the declarations and draw are favourable.

Niceofyoutotellme 12-1 Ladbrokes
Nabucco 16-1 Ladbrokes

Tipsy Tipsters Saturday tips

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A few of my old favourites are running on Saturday, and at the risk of sounding like someone who follows horses off a cliff, i will be backing both as if they are dead certs! I feel the time of year is right for them, and they’ve shown enough ability last time out to suggest they could well be ready and primed to take one of Saturdays main races.

Bosun Breese – Musselburgh 3:35 16-1 PaddyPower

This horse carries a feather weight compared to some of the more fancied horses, which is a big plus. At exactly this time last year he racked up 4 out of 5 wins during the months of June and July. David Barrons horses are hitting a bit of form with the stable having a 22% strike rate so far in June, and at 16-1, i think he offers fantastic value for not only each way, but the win. The race is a 20 runner affair, so anything could happen, but he does relish big fields over the straight 5, so we know if he’s up for it, he’ll put lots of effort in.

Quick Wit – York 3:15 5-1 William Hill

I love Meydan form, and although Quick Wit only won a handicap in the UAE, the fact that Saeed Bin Suroor has a fantastic 27% strike rate in the last 2 weeks puts alot of confidence behind this selection. His last success in the UK came in a class 2 race at Doncaster last September. He’s up against some well performing sorts who have been doing well lately, so his absense since Meydan is slightly concerning, but if any trainer can get a horse ready for the big day, it’s Bin Suroor, so i expect Quick Wit to run quite the race!

I was contemplating putting up Stipulate as the main danger, but, in his last race, despite the shorty being withdrawn at the start at Goodwood, he was still laboured and made is incredibly hard on himself to go passed the 25-1 rank outsider, finishing 2nd. That sort of mental issue doesnt fill me with confidence. One win in 14 starts, with most of his efforts being 2nd or 3rd.. hmmm!

Horse Racing Preview Saturday 15th June

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The last Saturday before Royal Ascot always seems to serve up some tricky handicaps to tempt punters into having a dabble before the serious betting starts on Tuesday. This year is no exception with York’s Charity Sprint Trophy a case in point. Can you believe it is possible to back any horse in the field at 10-1 or better?

In my preview article I picked out Moviesta, Vincentti and Lewisham as my three against the field. If you haven’t already placed a bet, you can get 10-1, 14-1 and 16-1 respectively. My advice would be to back anything you fancy now as York has a strong betting market and the favourite will probably be nearer 5-1 by the time the SP’s are returned.

In the 2.40 Westwiththenight is likely to go off favourite after finishing second to Gifted Girl at Ascot. Subsequent events reveal that she would have had to have been up to group class to beat that filly so it was no wonder she was left trailing by five lengths. Gifted Girl finished a fine second at Epsom and looks like a filly to follow.

The handicapper hasn’t done Westwiththenight any favours with 9st 10lb to carry and she may have a battle on her hands against the bottom weight Maven. This one has finished second twice at a mile and a quarter, running a little too freely for her own good on each occasion. She should settle better with a faster pace here and looks good each-way value.

The listed race at 3.15 is looking as competitive as the big sprint with the bookmakers going 4-1 the field with only eight runners. Plenty of people will be hoping that first time blinkers can persuade Stipulate to put his best foot forward for Lady Cecil whilst Questioning and Ladys First are bound to be in there battling.

It will be interesting to see how the two three-year-olds get on against their elders. Baltic Knight was trounced by Remote last time and if he boosts the form tomorrow you can expect Remote to be the shortest priced favourite in years for the Britannia Handicap. John Gosden usually has his string firing for Royal Ascot so I’m going to stick with Questioning.

Over at Sandown, Smoothtalkinrascal will have gone into more notebooks than Vinnie Jones after flashing home in second place in the Epsom Dash. He steps into listed class and is a warm favourite at around 2-1. My only reservation is that he doesn’t seem the kind of horse to win by far I’ll be hoping that his jockey can produce him at the right moment.

In the 2.20 there is bound to be plenty of support for Ashaadd who rather got Ryan Moore out of jail last time. He was held up behind horses off a slow pace but answered every call to get up close home and beat a useful sort in Homage. Moore can double up in the 4.05 on Defendant for Sir Michael Stoute. This one won his maiden impressively and can take advantage of the weight he receives from the slightly quirky but very talented Pythagorian.

York

Maven 8-1 Coral
Questioning 5-1 Ladbrokes

Sandown

Ashaadd 5-1 Ladbrokes
Smoothtalkinrascal 2-1 Coral
Defendant 9-2 Ladbrokes

York Charity Sprint Trophy Preview

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The big race of the weekend is the Charity Sprint Trophy at York, a race that has been won by some smart three-year-olds in the past. The last favourite to oblige was Tax Free in 2005 so it is a race to approach with caution.

The bookmakers certainly don’t seem quite sure what to make of it and have gone 7-1 the field. Heavens Guest and Moviesta have been installed as the early market leaders having both won last time out. Heavens Guest stepped up in grade from Hamilton Park to land a decent seven-furlong handicap at Epsom and represents Richard Fahey.

Heavens Guest is up 7lbs for his neck victory over Intrigo but he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by dropping back in trip. He was a good couple of lengths clear approaching the final furlong. Moviesta won here over five furlongs on softer ground last month and has gone up 6lbs in the ratings. The margin of victory was only a nose from Vincentti but jockey Paul Mulrennan got to the front quite early and always looked to have matters under control. Vincentti will have his supporters after that effort and certainly has excellent place claims on that effort.

He had previously won at Doncaster over six furlongs, running freely early on before being reigned back and produced late. He was more impressive on his last start and looks capable of further improvement. Brian Smart knows the time of day in these sprint races and I imagine that this race has been the plan for a while.

Cosmic Chatter runs in the Highclere colours and was close up behind Smoothtalkinrascal and Lucky Beggar here last month. The horse is yet to race beyond five furlongs and is short enough on what he has achieved to date. Lucky Beggar was easily put in his place by Richard Hannon’s Professor at Haydock last weekend and will do well to bounce back here.

Ralph Beckett’s Lewisham is an interesting runner. He was last seen hacking up on the all-weather at Kempton, a preparation that didn’t hinder Niceofyoutotellme before winning at Newmarket. Last season Lewisham was runner-up in the July Stakes so there is no doubting his ability. He holds Ahern and Chilworth Icon on that form. If the maiden race has boosted his confidence he could be thrown in here with just 8st 8lb.

Hasopop carries top weight and won a decent race at Newmarket before finishing third at Epsom. He didn’t get the best of runs in a muddling race that day but he will do well to win off a mark of 105. William Haggas is no mug in these races either and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Odooj step up on a moderate effort at Newmarket. The application of the blinkers for the first time and the one stall could light him up.

Moviesta looks the most progressive of these but Vincentti must have an each-way shout. I will also be having a small saver on Lewisham as he could be the best handicapped horse in the race.

Moviesta 9-1 Paddy Power
Vincentti (each-way) 12-1 Bet365
Lewisham 16-1 Paddy Power